Dark Man Cometh???

[Eagler]

This isn't a flu, it's SAR-2.  The 2009 flu is why we have the current reporting mandates that gave us a head start on this disease. 2009 was also a national emergency, it just wasn't headlined by the media.

Exactly my point..

12, 500 deaths in a year from that flu in the US

Again >12k deaths IN A YEAR and the media didn't run around stating how obama dropped the ball...

But then again it was not an election year and the media is his friend

<S>

Eagler

[Arlo]

According to you, this is Taleb's "theory":

        idiots (that shun true intelligence) > dense intellectuals

According to Taleb:

        average people (that shun idiocy/fake intelligence) > idiot intellectuals

You are misstating his position unless you think (average people) = idiots; (Idiocy/fake intelligence) = (true intelligence).

Our exchange started with this:



I believe the current administration operates in just this manner in spite of your bringing up Taleb and his theory.

[CptTrips]

Maybe due to a different political party in power at the time?

Well, did you research it at all? Or just jump to the conclusion it was all a MSM/Obama/Soros plot?  I'm sure DmonSlyr has a video on it with lots of "likes" if you want to know the truth. 

R0= how many others a vector infects on average.
CFR = Case Fatality Rate.  Percentage of identified infections that result in a fatality.

H1N1 had an R0 of somewhere between 1.2-1.6. 

Common Flu averages R0 around 1.3 in the US.

CoronaVirus has been hard to estimate because it is highly suspected the numbers out of China can't be fully trusted.  The best official guess WHO has at the moment is R0 of 2.3.  That means this is a HIGHLY transmittable virus.  Scarily transmittable.


H1N1 had a CFR of ~0.02%.  Common Flu has a CFR of ~0.1%.

Current WHO official estimate for CoronaVirus is CFR of 3.4%.  We are praying that will be reduced by dividing by a larger known infected rate once we can get tests widely distributed.  Best case scenarios like S. Korea who mobilized early with maximum effort and have been rigorously testing so they can find and isolate vectors early so they don't infect others: make CFR 0.7-1%.

I don't think we will do any where near as well as S. Korea.  We got started too late and still are bumbling around.  If we are extraordinarily lucky, maybe we can keep the CFR to 1%. 

That would be 10x the mortality rate of the common Flu which kills 12,000-60,000 Americans a year over the last 10 years.

12,000 x 10.  60,000 x 10.  Do the math.  And God help us if it is really a CFR of 3.4%.


Do you see why the media is a little more freaked out about this situation? 
 



   

[CptTrips]

All you are doing is irrationally feeding paranoia which leads to irrational panic. You and people like you are every bit as dangerous as the virus.

Oh, I think you're going to find the virus a lot more dangerous than me. 
And I will accept your apology later. 

If you're still around.


If I'm still around. 

[Arlo]

[Arlo]

[Brooke]

This isn't a battle between one side that believes smart is good and dumb is bad, and another side that believes smart is bad and dumb is good.

This is a battle between one side that believes its chosen smart people are smart and good and that the other side's chosen smart people are dumb and harmful; and vice versa.

You and OfficialJonZal have fallen for the bogus cartoon version of what "the other side" is like.

[DmonSlyr]

This isn't a battle between one side that believes smart is good and dumb is bad, and another side that believes smart is bad and dumb is good.

This is a battle between one side that believes its chosen smart people are smart and good and that the other side's chosen smart people are dumb and harmful; and vice versa.

You and OfficialJonZal have fallen for the bogus cartoon version of what "the other side" is like.

Unfortunately, they will never admit that their leaders have done some very bad things. They think any negative research about them is "made up and fake". They write everybody off and will never admit failure on their side. They are petulant and nasty when they lose arguments. I did enjoy that article you posted a few pages back.

Their arrogance has and will continue to be their downfall.

And by the way Oboe, not a single MSM poll had Trump winning. Trumps victory may as well be a landslide. They never thought she would lose, especially that badly. Hillary's wins on the election map look like a virus infecting the United States.   

[FLS]

Exactly my point..

12, 500 deaths in a year from that flu in the US

Again >12k deaths IN A YEAR and the media didn't run around stating how obama dropped the ball...

But then again it was not an election year and the media is his friend

<S>

Eagler

Agree on the media but flattening the infection curve is important. If it works it will look like it wasn't needed.

Italy had 260 deaths from H1N1 in 2009. They have over 1400 so far from COVID-19.

South Korea had 252 deaths from H1N1 in 2009. They currently have 72 from COVID-19. Is that from their early quarantine?

They have 12 hospital beds per 1000 people vs 3 in Italy but in 2009 South Korea had 8 per 1000 and similar mortality to Italy.

[Brooke]

Time for a brief musical interlude.  I present to you, my friends, Good vs. Good, by Akira The Don.

[Arlo]

[Arlo]

This isn't a battle between one side that believes smart is good and dumb is bad, and another side that believes smart is bad and dumb is good.

This is a battle between one side that believes its chosen smart people are smart and good and that the other side's chosen smart people are dumb and harmful; and vice versa.

You and OfficialJonZal have fallen for the bogus cartoon version of what "the other side" is like.

Not thinkin' so. When 'one side' believes their 'chosen smart people' are not incompetent even when its been proven time and again that they are then I don't care what they 'think' (or feel). I care about everyone's future. Even theirs. Wish I could say the same for them.

[guncrasher]

somehow this thread just becomes boring without violator


semp

[oboe]

...And by the way Oboe, not a single MSM poll had Trump winning. Trumps victory may as well be a landslide. They never thought she would lose, especially that badly. Hillary's wins on the election map look like a virus infecting the United States.   

You may want to refer to it as a surprise victory then.   It’s just factually incorrect to refer to it as a landslide.   <S>

[Brooke]

I care about everyone's future. Even theirs. Wish I could say the same for them.

Your wish has already been granted.  It's just that the two sides disagree on what is best for everyone's future.

Also, the difference of opinion might seem miniscule from a distance, like the Thirty Years' War -- 30 years of Protestants vs. Catholics, in one of the most-destructive wars in human history, where someone who isn't Protestant or Catholic might wonder, "Aren't they about the same?"