Author Topic: Think they'll do it?  (Read 2369 times)

Offline Gunslinger

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« Reply #30 on: October 24, 2004, 07:05:22 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Nashwan
There's two reasons no sane US president is going to attack Iran at the moment.

One is oil. Iran is one of the major producers, and there is only just adequate supply at the moment. Attack Iran and oil goes up to $100 a barrel immediately, even more if the Iranians attack other oil facilities in the Gulf (like Iraq's)

Second is the situation in Iraq. If the US attacks Uran, expect the number of attacks in Iraq to go through the roof, and the US death toll with it. Also expect in 2 - 3 years a US pullout from the region, a far more radicalised Iran and Iraq, and far more problems than we have now.

Truth is, there's not much that can be done now to stop Iran aquiring nukes if they want them.


True...but an Israli strike wich would be expected yet condemd by the US would have far less impact.  Also, I don't believe it would be a large scale airstrike accorss the country.....just a few strategic targets.

Offline Nashwan

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« Reply #31 on: October 24, 2004, 07:13:38 PM »
An Israeli airstrike would also have far less effect.

Iran took part in the airstrikes against Iraq's nuclear program in the early 80s, and they've not only spread their nuclear facilities around, they've buried some of them.

Given that their admitted plants are subject to inspection, the real work is likely going on in underground plants that will be hard for the Israelis to hit.

Offline Neubob

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« Reply #32 on: October 24, 2004, 07:58:48 PM »
When are you gonna learn, Gunslinger?

Niether the US, nor its close allies can ever do anything without being viewed as the aggressors. We make a retaliatory strike against an enemy, it's an illegal act of violence, a crime against humanity. When this same enemy decides to strike at us preemptively, it's because we were asking for it, because we'd pressed the poor, marginalized, harmless little nation up against the wall, leaving it with no other course of action. There was no evil until we started our emperialistic enslavement. No bad men with guns... Just innocent shepards and farmers whom we forced into armed combat. We're the bullies, and they're the freedom fighters. If and when the case may be that the preemptive strike happens to be an act of terrorism, then it's a 'nutbag' fanatic who's at fault--a man whose actions cannot, in any way, be indicative of the general sentiments held by the people who subsequently march around, by the thousand, with photos and banners glorifying the actions of said fanatic. Conversely, when we strike back, it's a corrupt administration backed by a nation of naive, bible-thumping simpletons. And after we strike back, it's a unanimous: 'now you understand why they use airliners as cruise missiles.'

Example: The earlier thread on why we used the atomic bomb. Of course it was our fault the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. We had no right striking back. We certainly had no right striking back with superior technology.

And the same goes for Israel. We're co-conspirators with the Israelis, you see. A pair of wealthy, Zionist-ruled nations, worthy of unending suspicion and doomed to fall just as Rome fell, under the weight of our own sins and indulgence.

The funny thing is, this criticism is generally coming from the sidelines. It's easy as hell to reprimand a nation whose interests spread to every corner of the globe when you're a citizen of a country that has barely been a blip on the radar of modern international affairs. How wonderful it must be to know everything, to be infallible...How orgasmically cozy it must feel to be engulfed, head to toe, in the safety blanket of global insignificance.

Will the Israelis do it? I don't know. All I know is that there is no such thing as an Israeli preemptive strike. There has never been. Like it or not, they're at ideological odds with just about everyone else in their region. Make no mistake about it, gentlemen. They are hated, outnumbered and worst of all, feared. They strike when they're threatened, and because they do it with ruthless efficiency, because they do it with advanced weaponry, and because they do it against an armed enemy(verses an unarmed child or grandmother) that is either too busy praying or simply to backward to respond in like, they will always be viewed as the aggressor.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2004, 08:02:34 PM by Neubob »

Offline Flyboy

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« Reply #33 on: October 24, 2004, 08:26:06 PM »
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Israel just bought a cubic metric s**tload of bunker busters. I wonder what they are for?


those are for self defence... :D

and lada:
destroying israel is one of irans goals. you have to be extremely naive not to belive in that... there where countless declerations from irani officials about making israel no more.
they are allso activly train and fund terrorist organizations and probably have a great deal of control on their leadership..
last year israely navy captured several smuggling boats full of weapons (including 240mm rockets and anti tank launchers) where do you think those weapons came from?


as for the rest of the scenarios posted, you guys watch way too much movies :)

i must say i dread the day iran will achive nuclear capability. not because i think they will use it.. they are not that stupid. but because it will completely unbalance the middle east. iran will become "un invadeable" and basicly could do what ever she wants with out fear of serious retaliation.

i hardly belive that israel in its currnt state will launch a strike, unless the US will ask her to (which might happen hopefully)
but the iranians will be prepare this time. like the old saying "fool me once shame on you- fool me twice shame on me"
they wont do the same mistake iraq did..


lets just hope for the sake of the western world that iran will never achive nuclear power.

Offline Flyboy

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« Reply #34 on: October 24, 2004, 08:28:31 PM »
btw.

feel free to correct any grammer or spelling mistakes :D

Offline Gunslinger

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« Reply #35 on: October 24, 2004, 08:33:06 PM »
good post Neubob,

I have never felt that America is a nation with clean hands but one thing is for sure.  9/11 changed the way I feel about the rest of the world.  I no longer care what about other nation's "opinions" of my country.  Those day's are long gone, they just don't matter.

When I see idiot protesters marching for the plight of Hamas and waving Israli flags that have swasticas on them I'm reminded just how dumb people can really be.  These people remind me of the fact that those that decry America's actions never have her best interests in mind to begin with.

I think Israel will strike.  I don't think they will ask anyone's permission to do so becaue an Iran w/ nukes is not in Israel's best interest.  

We live in exciting times gents and these are power plays.  It's gonna be interesting to see how history unfolds itself.

Offline Nashwan

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« Reply #36 on: October 24, 2004, 08:43:25 PM »
Quote
but an Israli strike wich would be expected yet condemd by the US


The problem is any Israeli strike at Iran's nuclear facilities has to cross Iraq. Iraq's airspace is controlled by the US, and so Israel can only attack if the US agrees.

Quote
i must say i dread the day iran will achive nuclear capability. not because i think they will use it.. they are not that stupid. but because it will completely unbalance the middle east. iran will become "un invadeable" and basicly could do what ever she wants with out fear of serious retaliation.


Yes, that's what I think as well.

Quote
i hardly belive that israel in its currnt state will launch a strike, unless the US will ask her to (which might happen hopefully)
but the iranians will be prepare this time. like the old saying "fool me once shame on you- fool me twice shame on me"
they wont do the same mistake iraq did..


I think an attack will do minor damage to Iranian nuclear facilities. The Iranians will respond by withdrawing from non proliferation treaties, and it will actually speed up their nuclear program.

Offline J_A_B

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« Reply #37 on: October 24, 2004, 09:10:00 PM »
The islamic terorists are not unlike the Japanese during WW2.  They're extremely fanatical and are perfectly willing to die for their cause.

Like the Japanese, I don't think they'll give up until faced with the prospect of having their entire race wiped off the face of the earth.  They're motivated, and they believe they're right.  They WILL NOT just up and quit because we ask them to or because we replace one shaky government with another.  As with WW2, we must give the islamics a choice between unconditional surender, or the complete and utter destuction of their entire people--and we must have the resolve to follow through with it if they choose the latter.  Look at what it took before the Japanese finally threw in the towel--hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians slaughtered, most of their cities leveled to the ground, their nation completely ruined economically.  They were this - close to being eradicated from existance.  It's incredibly ugly, dirty business.  But it's better to end it now than to see my gandchildren still fighting it.   Let the historians 50 years hence debate whether we did the right thing from the safety of their offices, rather than let our children and our children's children continue what we didn't finish.   It's better that way.

The way we're fighting this "war" now, it'll never end.  We aren't fighting it to win.  They sure are--they're doing their best with what they have to destroy us--but we aren't.  War is always dirty business, so the quicker it's over with the better.  Let them see what it means to face the entire wrath of the United States.  Let us fight with a grim resolve that frightens our enemies and maybe some of our friends.

I don't CARE whether we do the "moral" thing, or the "nice" thing.  What good is being "right" if you're dead?  No, if you're going to fight, you either fight to win with 100% effort, or don't fight at all.  

J_A_B

Offline Nefarious

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« Reply #38 on: October 24, 2004, 09:10:48 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Nashwan
The problem is any Israeli strike at Iran's nuclear facilities has to cross Iraq. Iraq's airspace is controlled by the US, and so Israel can only attack if the US agrees.


The US doesnt have to agree, Do you think We would launch interceptors if the Israeli's had a fairly large strike group heading for Iran?

We would identify them as the IAF, and probably vector our airborne aircraft away from them to prevent an "Accident". Possibly launch a KC135 to make sure they got enough gas to get back to Israel.

Surely the Syrians or Jordainians would be pretty peeved and could possibly inform the Iranians that they were coming, Who knows what would happen about that. Surely the IDF would have aircraft ready to handle them if things got ugly.

So, In other words, Yes, I beleive Israel is capable of doing it and doing it successfully as well. Will they do it? That I dont know, give it a couple of years and I wouldn't be suprised.
There must also be a flyable computer available for Nefarious to do FSO. So he doesn't keep talking about it for eight and a half hours on Friday night!

Offline Rino

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« Reply #39 on: October 24, 2004, 10:15:59 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Staga
You really haven't learnt anything about recent happenings, for example in N.Y and in Iraq ?

Do you expect a country like Iran to use conventional weapons against US nuclear arsenal?
Of course not or you would be naive; if third world country would attack against US it would use biological and chemical weapons and use different ways to delivere them to US.

Now what I don't understand why pre-emptive strike is acceptable if it's done by US or Israel but if some other country would hit you first you'd scream bloody murder?

btw when was last time Iran attacked against some country? When was last time US did the same?


       So Captain Ameristalker, exactly how many WMDs did the
evil American Empire hit Iraq with?

       Iran was attacking oil tankers in the Persian Gulf quite
regularly during the 80s, guess that little datum passed under
your radar screen.
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Offline lada

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« Reply #40 on: October 25, 2004, 02:53:10 AM »
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Originally posted by Gunslinger
Lada can you even try and add to the descussion.  There is no need for any of us to provide specific links to reasons why Iran would want to take out the jewish state.  That has been the goal for ALL muslim countrys for a very long time.  


I do not agree on this statement.

It has been claimed  by some little group of retarded idiots or countries whitch are at war.

My point in this discusion is.... That i do not see any single reason, why should Iran attack anyone.

They are interesting in quite a lot other things...
http://www.irna.ir/?SAB=OK&LANG=EN&PART=_ARCHIVE&TYPE=_NARCHIVE&id=20041022182854F01

i found a bit more things about their activitions
http://www.irna.ir/?SAB=OK&LANG=EN&PART=_ARCHIVE&TYPE=_NARCHIVE&id=20041022094723F01
http://www.irna.ir/?SAB=OK&LANG=EN&PART=_ARCHIVE&TYPE=_NARCHIVE&id=20041022105210F01


But i didnt find anything related to "Death to Evil non-muslim coutnries"


Actualy why do you fear ? What information did you get, that you have sutch attitude.

Offline lada

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« Reply #41 on: October 25, 2004, 02:58:21 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Nashwan
The problem is any Israeli strike at Iran's nuclear facilities has to cross Iraq. Iraq's airspace is controlled by the US, and so Israel can only attack if the US agrees.


The only one problem are S-300`s, whitch has been part of Nuclear Technology  order from Russia. :)

Offline lada

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« Reply #42 on: October 25, 2004, 03:07:11 AM »
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Originally posted by Flyboy
those are for self defence... :D

and lada:
destroying israel is one of irans goals. you have to be extremely naive not to belive in that... there where countless declerations from irani officials about making israel no more.
they are allso activly train and fund terrorist organizations and probably have a great deal of control on their leadership..
last year israely navy captured several smuggling boats full of weapons (including 240mm rockets and anti tank launchers) where do you think those weapons came from?

 


Wow ... realy ... thats odd.... non of my iranian friends around know anyhing about sutch goal.

However.... my Kurdish friend from Kermanshash, proud iranian, had very good relation ships with his jewish neigbour.... .

But you probably hear it on CNN, so its holy true..


Yeah ..... and every month there is many Tons of Drugs, whitch leave Iran trough Iraq or Azerbaijdzan...... I guess you probably belive that those drugs has been grow by Iranain goverment, to destroy Western youths ... right ?

And we better do not talk about Afghanistan and Russia. Coz average american is probably convinced, that there is not smugliing in Iran, they simply produce all those baaaad things to silently destroy you....... rofl

Offline Staga

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« Reply #43 on: October 25, 2004, 03:23:03 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Rino
So Captain Ameristalker, exactly how many WMDs did the
evil American Empire hit Iraq with?

       Iran was attacking oil tankers in the Persian Gulf quite
regularly during the 80s, guess that little datum passed under
your radar screen.


So Iran, while in war against Iraq, atacked oil tankers 20 years ago.
Was it about same time United States warship USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian Airbus and killed all 290 of its passengers? Wow that many kills with one missile... You must be proud :)

When was last time US attacked a country ? Was Iraq the latest one? Where are the WMDs ?

Offline babek-

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« Reply #44 on: October 25, 2004, 03:40:33 AM »
I try to show you the iranian point of view:

Iran already has missiles which can reach Israel.
Iran also has chemical weapons - so it could use them to equip these missiles.

But - surprise, surprise - Iran didnt attacked Israel.

Also - in the last 100 years Iran has not attacked any other nation with its military.

On the other side Iran was attacked during WW1 - despite its declared neutrality.
Iran was attacked and occupied by the allies during WW2 - despite its neutrality.
Irans democracy was destroyed in the 50tes by foreigners which resulted in the terror regime of the Shah and his SAVAK and later in the terror regime of the mullahs and the SAVAMA/VEVAK.
Iran was attacked by Iraq and forced in a bloody 8 year war.

The last thing Iran would do is to attack Israel. Because Israel is a very useful tool to distract the sworn enemy of the iranians: the arabs. Arabs and Israelis are members of the semite race - Iranians are not.

My uncle once told me a joke: If 20 palestinian arabs and 5 Israelis are killed in fighting each other, Iran leads 25:0.

For most iranian the arabs are a much worse threat to Iran than Israel.

Also its not so much the nuclear power of the jewish Israel, which cause fear in the shiite Iran, but much more the nuclear power of the sunnite islamic Pakistan.

Then another thing:
Before Bush made his stupid "Axis of Evil" speach, there was a bitter inner political fighting in Iran, in which the mullahs were loosing power to more liberal and democratic powers.

But when Iran itself is threatened by foreign nations - and its not important  if this is Iraq or the USA or Israel - the inner political fightings are stopped because of a possible foreign enemy.
So Bush was really succesful in stabilizing the mullah regime.

And so its not a surprise that last week the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran recommended that the US citizen should vote for Bush instead for Kerry.

Never before in its history Iran has recommended the USA who to vote.

I think that the mullahs wish that Israel or the USA would do an air/missile strike against the nuclear installations in Iran.
Because then they could say "look - they are hating us - we have to force our hard laws in order to protect iran from the iraqui or afghan fate"

And the mullahs also know that its very easy for them to replace attacked installations. They have the money and countries like Russia or China dont care about embargos - they will rebuild any damaged or destroyed installation if they get enough oil-money.
Also many european states will do so.

So any air strike would only help the mullahs.