Actually we have two problems at present, neither are related to the amount of available crude oil:
1) WORLD demand continues to increase with no end in sight. China currently uses almost as much oil as the USA and analysts expect them to outstrip US consumption in the near future. They also don't have much in the way of environmental controls or conservation laws to restrain them. Since price is a function of demand, and the international demand base is widening, the OPEC countries are going to be under less and less political pressure to lower prices, so $2.00 a gallon is probably going to become a baseline.
2) The US problem is going to get worse, as was mentioned, unless we get serious about refining. Even with the most rapid implementation of "alternative energy" possible, we will still have an increasing demand for petrochemical products, including heating oil, natural gas, Kerosene. Want to really lower the cost of business and travel? Build some more danged refineries that are both close to transport and centers of production. We are currently almost at crisis level in that respect.
- SEAGOON