What if.... An abstract political question.

[detch01]

Originally posted by Hangtime
Oh, Canada! wilst thou swap real beaver fer sheep?

Yea, I think you probably would.

Only in Ottawa (where we store our politicians). The rest of us understand that the value of good beaver.


asw

[Momus--]

If any superpowers are going to end up backing Iran it will be as likely be China as Russia and there isn't much US could do about it.

A major new alliance is emerging between Iran and China that threatens to undermine U.S. ability to pressure Tehran on its nuclear program...

..The burgeoning relationship is reflected in two huge new oil and gas deals between the two countries that will deepen the relationship for at least the next 25 years, analysts here say. ..

..China's trade with Iran is weakening the impact on Iranian policy of various U.S. economic embargoes..

..Beijing has also provided Iran with advanced military technology, including missile technology..

..The Iran-China ties may be partly a response to the United States, analysts here say. President Bush's strategy has been to contain both China and the Islamic republic, said Siamak Namazi, a political and economic analyst, "so that's created natural allies."..

Source

[Boroda]

Originally posted by Hangtime
ruh roh. Boroda's on the way home, brown bag in hand, no ticket in his pocket.

Now I'm in fer it.. when (if) he makes it home, i'm gonna get my yankee dog ears pinned back.

I eagerly await my demise.

"Brown bag" - you mean a pauper's bag? My Father calls my city-backpack (alpinist's "storm-backpack") a "pauper's bag"

I have a 90day Metro pass, contactless smart-card. And a pack of cigarettes in a pocket. I don't need anything else in my city. A bottle of beer in my hand is a bonus.

Now I am back at work after celebrating with my Cousin from Barnaul, Altai, and his scientific chief (professor). I have a severe hangover, already had my 100ml of vodka at 0900, drinking mineral water now... Thirsty...

Going to field work now, working on a LAN in some office at "Airport" area, so no time or possibility to think now. Sorry.

[Raider179]

Originally posted by Thrawn
Sigh, and in 2003 Russia gave the US over 6 billion dollars in goods and services, over 8 billion in 2004 and over 4 billion so far this year.  Ain't that nice of the US to give a billion back.

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4621.html

lmao you are comparing trade with aid. Lmao you do know the difference right?

I saw nothing that said Russia GAVE anything.

[Raider179]

Originally posted by superpug1
wow, this discussion is heating up.
Remmember it wasnt about if we went to war with russia, it was if russia and Iran became allies. I dont think it would change much, Russia would have another friendly country. It may even make Iran stop its research and development cause russia could just build em all the Nuclear power plants they wanted. Sure would make a war easier with Iran. Just hit the power plants that are spread throughout the country with bunker busters to crack the Core and and kill the plant workers. Radiation would leak out and spread across most of their country, all the rest of the military would have to do is mop up.

BUUUUT i doubt that would happen, plus radiation poisoning is horrible way to die.

Hmmm seems to me that the EU already offered Iran Light water reactors and they declined. They want heavy water reactors for one reason.

[Raider179]

Originally posted by Thrawn
To play devil's advocate, or nutbar islamic theocracy's advocate, it is possible that the Iranian government believes that it is worth more to them to sell the oil than use it domestically, heck it might even be true.

Example, say Canada is one of the major producers of an important product that is very much in demand...say beaver.  Every beaver pelt that we use domestically, to keep ourselves warm and what not, is one more we can't sell, and get greater value for and import other goods we may demand.  

Now say the Kiwis or Aussies come up to Canada and say, "We'll teach you to harvest wool.  Using sheep to keep warm is alot cheaper than using beaver.  On top of that it frees up your beaver to sell else where.".

Now even though Canada has the some of the most abundant and best beaver in the world, it might become economically beneficial to switch to sheep for domestic use.

Its an ok analogy but comparing wool with Heavy water reactors is just not gonna cut it. Keep in mind Iran turned down the light water reactor deal from the EU.

[Raider179]

Originally posted by detch01
Only in Ottawa (where we store our politicians). The rest of us understand that the value of good beaver.


asw

Even if I wasnt drunk I still woulda laughed good one

[Raider179]

Originally posted by Momus--
If any superpowers are going to end up backing Iran it will be as likely be China as Russia and there isn't much US could do about it.



Source

Most intelligent to be in this thread. China has way more to gain and a lot less to lose by placing that pressure on the US. Taiwan anyone???

[Raider179]

Originally posted by Russian
US have been doing so since 90s if not earlier. Or are you going to say that Chechens waved magic wand and somehow made out of thin air American combat medic kits?

Link these accusations or say nothing.

[Momus--]

All this hand wringing over Iran as a rogue nation is fairly ill-conceived IMO. If Iran wants nukes, it has more to do with the desire to guarantee their own independence and deter invasion than to use in any offensive capability. You only need to look at their recent history to understand their motivations for this; getting attacked by a Western-backed Iraq and taking hundreds of thousands of casualties as a result is probably still quite fresh in their memories, no?

The reason for Israel's squealing about Iran's nuclear program is not because they fear an attack, but because they know that it would alter the regional balance of power at their expense and weaken their negotiating position over the occupied territories and a final peace settlement with their neighbours. Their post-1967 position as regional top-dog and resulting privileged relationship with the west would soon become a thing of the past as the rest of the world became obliged to treat nations other than Israel as the real regional powerhouses. Israel knows that if Iran ever stepped seriously out of line then the combined forces of the US, Britain, France, Russia, China, and indeed the rest of the world would administer one almighty beating rather than let them destabilize a region that is so fundamental to the prosperity of the world economy. Iran's rulers might be a bunch of theocratic wing-nuts but they are not stupid; their overriding and above all pragmatic concern is to stay in power in their own backyard. Their pursuit of nuclear technology needs to be viewed in this context.

It's pretty clear to me that behind the scenes it is China already pulling Iran's strings. China has gone from being a net oil exporter to an importer in the last decade and will need to guarantee its supply in the decades ahead. Iran is pretty much the richest producer outside of the USA's sphere of influence, especially now that Iraq has been brought back into the fold. Leveraging the oil supply is pretty much the only option left to the US in maintaining advantage over the Chinese and the Chinese will have recognised that fact a decade ago if not sooner.

[Boroda]

Originally posted by Raider179
Hmmm seems to me that the EU already offered Iran Light water reactors and they declined. They want heavy water reactors for one reason.

The hype about Iranian nuclear programm started after RF declared that the only condition for building powerstation in Busher is that geat-emitting elements will be recycled in Russia.

About EU's position on a Russia/Iran nuclear deal: it's competition. France produces over 70% of electricity on nuclear powerstations, they do have some technology to export.

[Boroda]

Originally posted by Hangtime
Boroda, I fully expect in the coming years America will be forced to implement some very unpopular (with russia) policies regarding the security of ameican 'interests', backed up by the use of applied military violence to make the point.

You are welcome. Did you read "Moon is a harsh mistress"? What target do you suggest for a first strike to demonstrate our abilities?...

Originally posted by Hangtime
Iran may well be the place that happens. It may be a second Korean War. It could be Pakistan. It might be France. The location matters not a bit.

Sure, for new world order it doesn't matter where to start a slaughter.

Originally posted by Hangtime
Data point: US 'interest' is not world domination or the conquest of Russia, yah paranoid commie. It never was, never will be. It is however in America's best interest that nobody else does either. All threats are 'serious' particularly in this Nuclear Age of push button war.

Heh, Hang, so why all this hype about "democracy"?

Democracy is only an effective way to increase Coca-Cola and chewing gum sales. (c) Pavel Yurievich Pavlov.

You don't need world domination, for sure. All you need is to make profit. Just as in WWII.

Originally posted by Hangtime
Should Russia attempt to return to cold war dogma and international policies, the US will whip yer bellybutton again, without ever putting a foot on your soil. Should Russia decide to go 'hot', we'll still whip yer ass, and you won't be harvesting any wheat any time soon as a result.

Again?! LOL!

If some looney in DC will decide to go "hot" - expect to see some smoke-trails coming down from the sky. I mean - this fascinating scene will be your last and most impressive experience. Unfortunately it's Ultima ratio regis for Russia.

/*Sorry for using Latin again*/

Originally posted by Hangtime
Now, unless you seriously think your financially bankrupt and broken down piss-pot republic (with our without any third world pals you bring in on your 'side') can stand in the ring and go toe to toe with the most advanced and competent military on the planet, I suggest yah stop pounding the podium & plop yer wide flat russian butt back down in yer seat and put yer shoe back on.

Advanced and competent military on the planet? What planet? You mean - on Mars with your rover carts?

If the planet is Earth - then why don't I hear air-raid sirens while typing this?



Too scared? Are we still too young for democracy? Or maybe too old? (Novgorod Republic existed in 800AD, 1000 years before your "declaration on independance" and constitution). I guess - too young, because we still have Strategic Missile Corps.

A quote from a nazi Tiger company commander who was transferred to the West from Russian front in 1945: "One Russian is more dangerous then five of this Americans".

Originally posted by Hangtime
Get a Moscow McDonalds Big Mac and enjoy Democracy in Action.



(Note: I haven't seen any Russian fast food joints in the US.. is that significant?)

Sure, you only prove my words: "democracy" is nothing more then  marketing technology.

I prefer pirogi, chebureki, shawerma or shashlyk to hamburgers, and kvas to coke.

I don't want to say that I'll go to war because of it, but I want to choose food myself, without any advices, especially if that advices are backed up by B-52s and cruise missiles.

See a quote from Chairman Mao in my sig.

And you shouldn't advice us about who has to be our friend and who hasn't. If someone makes such advises - we get nervous.

[Boroda]

Originally posted by Raider179
Link these accusations or say nothing.

27 Stinger missiles captured in Chechnya doesn't ring a bell?...

Hosting Chechen terrorists ("political asylum" for Akhmadov) is a friendly act?

[Raider179]

Originally posted by Boroda
The hype about Iranian nuclear programm started after RF declared that the only condition for building powerstation in Busher is that geat-emitting elements will be recycled in Russia.

About EU's position on a Russia/Iran nuclear deal: it's competition. France produces over 70% of electricity on nuclear powerstations, they do have some technology to export.

ummm no.

the hype started when it was discovered that Pakistan's star scientist (khan I think his name was) let it be known he sold centrifuges to Iran.

Its no competition. EU offered Iran LWR technology and guess what, Iran passed on it. So the "we need energy so we can sell our oil" is a baseless claim. Only 1 reason for HWR and that is to make bombs.

[Raider179]

Originally posted by Boroda


Advanced and competent military on the planet? What planet? You mean - on Mars with your rover carts?

If the planet is Earth - then why don't I hear air-raid sirens while typing this?



Too scared? Are we still too young for democracy? Or maybe too old? (Novgorod Republic existed in 800AD, 1000 years before your "declaration on independance" and constitution). I guess - too young, because we still have Strategic Missile Corps.

A quote from a nazi Tiger company commander who was transferred to the West from Russian front in 1945: "One Russian is more dangerous then five of this Americans".

 

I don't want to say that I'll go to war because of it, but I want to choose food myself, without any advices, especially if that advices are backed up by B-52s and cruise missiles.

See a quote from Chairman Mao in my sig.

And you shouldn't advice us about who has to be our friend and who hasn't. If someone makes such advises - we get nervous.

1)You dont hear Sirens because your 40 year old radars cant pick up stealth. You wouldnt even know if America decided to take your country back to the middle ages.

and by the way where are the russian mars landers again? oh thats right they ALL crashed going in.

2)Your missile corps is a joke. You cant even secure you own nuclear arms without Funding from US.

3)As for you quote, Notice we fought 3000 miles away from our homeland, you guys fought how many miles into yours? Dangerous does not mean effective.

4)More like backed up by F-22s, Tomahawks, B-2s, and F-117s.

5)Dont be friends with our enemies and you won't have a problem but then again you signed a treaty with germany in WW2 so why should I think Russia would do anything different this time.