israel in war

[RedTop]

Originally posted by lukster
Latest I hear is Lebanon saying they will fight with Hezbollah against Israel if Israel sends large scale ground forces into Lebanon to fight Hezbollah. This whole thing could escalate out of control yet.

Just heard that. Its a strange strange world we live in.

God help us all....or for you atheists.....Good Luck

[Angus]

Just read this on the news. Yup, Lebanon is picking the side of Hizbollah rather than stopping them?
And from dead:
""If Hizbollah wanted to kill as many civilians as possible, they wouldn't be lobbing puny rockets..."
Strange how that justification seems to swing both ways and still sound natural - perhaps because it's merely a justification of thuggery."

They'd lob something bigger if they had it, while the Israelis have the force to pancake the whole of Lebanon if they would want it. Get it? Of course not, you'd have moved out, right. Keep moving around the globe...
Comes to my mind when I think about this all, - what was the first news I remember from the Israelis. Oh, yes, the Olympics, and then shortly after I remember something about a schoolbus being blown up. A frigging schoolbus. With children my age at the time. So I started adding. Now they WERE the target and so it has been ever since...

Do the Israelis posess technology to blow up schoolbuses?

[DiabloTX]

From the message traffic I've seen come across from the Reserve Center here I'm already packing my seabag in anticipation of getting the recall notice.  Just a matter if time now.

[RedTop]

Originally posted by DiabloTX
From the message traffic I've seen come across from the Reserve Center here I'm already packing my seabag in anticipation of getting the recall notice.  Just a matter if time now.

Well Bro...if you do get it , be safe. Best wishes.  an Thanks from a fellow Sailor.

[Maverick]

Originally posted by Angus

Do the Israelis posess technology to blow up schoolbuses?

Short answer,yes. They just don't have the hate or barbarity quotient to deliberately do an act like that.

[Holden McGroin]

Originally posted by -dead-
Put the straw man down, he's had enough.

I'd base the ethical standards on the intent -- so using a sniper rifle and hitting a hostage with the bullet can certainly be construed as accidental: it is a precision weapon, not designed to kill everything in a 60m radius.

So are your ethical standards are based upon intent or firepower?

You seem to accept collateral damage if the attack is precise enough.

If the bomb destroys everthing within 60M... bad

How about 50 M?

[-dead-]

Originally posted by Elfie
Yep, Israel intends to kill civilians, thats why they dropped leaflets warning them to leave.

If you are warned to leave an area because danger, life threatening danger.....is imminent, and you choose to NOT leave and you get hurt, or even deaded....who's fault is that? Yours and yours alone, no one elses.

Well, that sounds like a fairly logical justification for killing civilians at first glance, but what are the Lebanese to make of the Israelis ordering everyone out of the village of Marwaheen and then bombing their convoy? Sounds a bit like "stay and we'll bomb you, leave and we'll bomb you" to them, I reckon. So why bother going?

And indeed if you drop leaflets, you're unlikely to be catching Hizbollah unawares and in situ either -- so one has to wonder: why bother bombing the place at all?

[Elfie]

Originally posted by -dead-
Well, that sounds like a fairly logical justification for killing civilians at first glance, but what are the Lebanese to make of the Israelis ordering everyone out of the village of Marwaheen and then bombing their convoy? Sounds a bit like "stay and we'll bomb you, leave and we'll bomb you" to them, I reckon. So why bother going?

And indeed if you drop leaflets, you're unlikely to be catching Hizbollah unawares and in situ either -- so one has to wonder: why bother bombing the place at all?

This one is safe, no gory pictures.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5184122.stm

So far only one side of the story has been told here. Did those Israeli pilots attack those vehicles knowing they held civilians? Had that area been deemed clear of civilians and declared a *free fire zone* because they thought all the civilians were gone? We dont know the answers to any of those questions or many others yet.

You make it sound like as soon as the Lebanese left their homes and were peacefully leaving that the Israelis attacked them. That isnt what happened at all. They were told to leave and were also told they only had hours to do so. They left and headed for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon base for shelter and were refused entry because the UN couldnt confirm that they were ordered to leave their homes. At some point after leaving the UN base civilian vehicles were attacked by Israeli air units. I have seen reports of either an F-16 or a helicopter being the attacker.

I'm sure we'll hear more in the coming days. If that Israeli pilot(s) is/are guilty  of deliberately attacking civilians I'm sure Israel will pursue punishment, they want to be the good guys in this fight. For the moment alot of us still feel they are. The UN also shares some of the blame for this tragedy because of their refusal to allow those people in.

[Nilsen]

Originally posted by BGBMAW
when the shoe fits wear it

And yes..people are idiots if they think isreal is "too harsh"

But theses same people are very very quiet ...when

1) you are lopping some ones head off with a butter knife

2) you are strapping c4 with nails on..then walking into a wedding/pizza parlor/bus



Ya...thats real nice....Funny the racists in the EU-UN-Middel east..close there pie holes when that happens......"Give peace a chance"

They moved out 6  years ago...UN sits on border..what did they do to stop Hamas or Hizpoobaa?..NOTHING

yes idiots truly fits the shoe

I think you should pay better attention, but I guess its easy to miss when everyone is going in the same direction.

[Edbert1]

Originally posted by Maverick
Short answer,yes. They just don't have the hate or barbarity quotient to deliberately do an act like that.

I'd put the emphasis on the latter, their barbarity, and that is what strikes me most about the Islamofascists. It just seems like we are in the 21st century and that entire region of the world (predominantly muslim populated countries from Libya to Pakistan) seems somehow stuck in the 8th century. Except that they have learned through centuries of military defeats to "western" forces that they are no match so they've evolved this little "insugent/terrorist/partisan" tactic that so far western military powers have yet to learn to defeat.

Our enemy knows no limit to their depths of depravity and barbarity, and the sooner we come to grips with that and prepare to defeat it the better. I'm afraid we're just going to have to get our collective hands dirty and stoop below our high moral ground (as western civilization has done so many times in the past when fighting a culture that wants to eliminate it). I don't see defeating these guys with words and humanistic or religious moral arguments. I also do not see defeating them with traditional warfare tactics. There may be some hearts-and-minds to be won over to our side but they are a tiny minority. The majority of the hearts-and-minds are not on the table and cannot be deterred, I've come to beleive they just need erradicating. They have yet to have their renaissance or period of enlightenment. So if they want to act like curr dogs in the streets they need to be dealt with accordingly.

[Habu]

Well I think things are going to heat up there soon. Now that Hezbollocks has longer range missiles Israel is going to extend their borders 10 km or so into Lebanon to create a buffer zone. Especially in those areas near one of their big cities.

If the Lebanese government won't stop the rocket attacks looks like Israel will take matters into their own hands.

[lazs2]

nelson... no...you were comparing lebenon to nazi occupied countries... are you saying the hezbo whatevers control the whole country?   Why wouldn't the neighbors call the cops if they saw four guys break into my house?

And.... if they wouldn't then that would tend to mean that the hez-ebola virus controled the entire counrty in which case...

That would mean that lebenon was rocketing the jews... you can't have it both ways.   If the country is in cahoots with the hez-ebola... then they have forfieted some of their "civilian" stutus when they allow the hez-ebola to have rocket launchers in town or have their hedquarters in large apartment complexes.

How would you take care of the hez-ebola virus if you were Israel?   They are firing rockets and making cross border raids and hiding in the midst of a very willing population of a country that encourages them to do whatever they want... even gives them political power.

I think the jews are doing exactly what needs to be done.   I think the people of lebanon ought to be thinking this through and be blaming the hez-ebola.... just like the people of germany eventualy realized that the real enemy was hitler.

lazs

[Nilsen]

Have a nice day lazs... spoonfeeding you is getting old, so you can keep stomping you feet all you want.

Get some fresh air.

[lazs2]

I will thanks.  gonna change the oil in the Lincoln and get a haircut and maybe jump in one of the Hot Rods and  go shoot some pistols.... later pick up the grand daughter for a weekend.   Love these 3 day weekends.  

Maybe do some pickup work on the addition stuff I did around the house and think about if I can retire this year or not.

Edbert is correct about the islamofacists.... you wouldn't want em in your country much less running it but you condone their barbarism in other countries so long as they are doing it against jews.

Never could figure out if it was just a general your-0-peean anti semitism or that it is a resentment for the individulistic nature of Israel and it's citizens.... Much like the resentment your-0-peeeans have allways felt toward the U.S.

It is funny that you would defend the most barbaric people on earth... as edbert says... they live in another time... but.... Not so much the 8th century in my opinion but in a one big century  where all the centuries flow together.... where  people drive cars to the stoning or pull a flintlock out of the trunk.   Where TV is used to highlight the cutting off of someones head who dares to be a citizen of another country or religion.

I have to ask.... who would you want for a neighbor... the jews or the lebonese/hez-ebolas?

That is the gist of it.... who do you want for a neigbor to your little ice bear country?

Would you fear the jews?  Do you believe they would kidnap and murder your citizens?   "bulldoze" your homes while you were at a meal of lutefish?   fire rockets at your apartments?

Or... would you fear an intolerant hez-ebola kidnapping and beheading your citizens and strapping on bomb suits in the ice capade follies?

lazs

[Edbert1]

New notice from Stratfor:

Red Alert: Hezbollah's Iranian Connection
Prior to the rise of the Shia in Iraq, Hezbollah -- as a radical *****e Islamist organization -- was Iran's main asset in the Arab world. In fact, it likely will continue to be used by Tehran as a key tool for furthering Iranian geopolitical interests in the region, until such time as *****e power has been consolidated in Baghdad and Iran's interests there secured.

In its earliest days, Hezbollah was a classic militant organization -- the creation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite unit of the Iranian military. It was founded as a way to export the ideals of Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini's Islamic revolution to the *****e community of Lebanon, and served as a model for follow-on organizations (some even using the same name) in other Arab states. It did not take long, however, for Hezbollah to emerge in Lebanon as a guerrilla movement, whose fighters were trained in conventional military tactics.

In the mid-1980s, Iran's premier intelligence agency, the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), assumed the task of managing Tehran's militant assets -- not just in the Middle East but in other parts of the world as well. This allowed the Iranians, through a special unit within MOIS, to strike at Israeli interests in places as diverse as Latin America and Southeast Asia.

The relationship between MOIS and Hezbollah remains a subject worthy of study in light of the current situation in Lebanon. Of course, Iran has been Hezbollah's chief source of funding and weapons over the years, and the Iranians continue to supply extensive training in weapons, tactics, communications, surveillance and other methods to the militant wing of Hezbollah in Lebanon. The relationship is sufficiently close that the Hezbollah branch in Iran proper recently declared it would unleash militant attacks against Israelis and Americans around the world if given the order by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (Tehran insists that Hezbollah is not an arm of official policy.)

We have previously discussed the possibility that Hezbollah might be moved to seize hostages or engage in other militant acts, given the pressure the Israelis now are bringing to bear. There is some question, of course, as to whether Iran might be involved in future militant operations -- and if so, what assets it might use and the modalities that would apply.

An Organizational Model

There is a division of labor of sorts in the way that Iran manages its foreign assets: The IRGC (which is led by a professional military officer with strong ideological credentials as an Islamist) oversees the Lebanese Hezbollah, while MOIS (which almost always is headed by a cleric) manages militant operatives and groups in other parts of the Muslim world -- Afghanistan, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, India. Moreover, MOIS also maintains contacts among the *****e immigrant populations in non-Muslim countries, including those in the West.

It also is important to note that radical *****e Islamist ideology is only one factor that shapes Tehran's decisions. Ethnicity and nationalism also play an important role in Iran's dealings with *****e allies of Arab, South Asian and other descent. The Persians claim a rich cultural heritage, which they view as superior to that of the Arabs. This attitude impacts the level of trust and cooperation between the Iranians and other *****e groups -- including Hezbollah -- when it comes to sensitive international operations. It is little wonder, then, that the Lebanese organization's sphere of operations does not extend much beyond the Levant.



It follows that Hezbollah is a useful tool for Iran in its dealings with Israel, but in few other areas. However, Iranian intelligence has cultivated numerous groups that can serve its interests in other parts of the world, and it maintains contact with these groups through MOIS operatives placed in diplomatic posts.

A History of Cooperation

Though it has been many years since Hezbollah carried out significant attacks beyond the Middle East, the participation of MOIS agents in some of those attacks is worthy of note. Investigations into the 1988 hijacking of Kuwait Airways Flight 422 out of Bangkok and two bombings in Buenos Aires -- in 1992 and 1994 -- both revealed involvement by MOIS, coordinating with local Hezbollah operatives. However, to provide plausible deniability, the hijacking and bomb teams were deployed from outside the targeted country; the assets in place were used to conduct preoperational surveillance on potential targets.

Up close, what this would mean is that the MOIS officer at the Iranian embassy in the target country or city would maintain close contact with the Hezbollah cells in his area or responsibility. Given the rules of intelligence work, an "official asset" like a diplomat is usually under suspicion and surveillance as an intelligence officer (or IO); therefore, less-prominent Hezbollah members can be used to case potential targets. In a situation where a MOIS agent is believed to be under such tight surveillance that he cannot function effectively, the Iranians might call on the services of a clandestine MOIS agent instead. In the case of the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, the MOIS officer was the Iranian cultural attache, who oversaw the operation from the safety of his embassy office. The Argentines eventually declared seven embassy employees as "persona non grata" due to suspected connections to the bombing.

Upon receiving a "go" order for an operation -- such as assassinations of Iranian dissidents or the kidnappings of Western diplomatic and intelligence personnel (for instance, CIA station chief William F. Buckley in 1984 and U.S. Marine Lt. Col. William R. Higgins in 1988) -- activity levels at the embassy spike. The role of MOIS frequently would be to provide the cash or supply weapons or materials needed for an attack carried out by its "militant assets." In some countries, such as Britain (where Hezbollah bombed a Jewish charity in 1994), it can be difficult to obtain items like blasting caps and explosives; these can be supplied with the protection of a diplomatic pouch.

Many MOIS intelligence operatives have been educated in the United States or in Britain, wear nice suits, are multilingual and move easily in Western social circles -- unlike the IRGC operatives in Lebanon, who, socially speaking, are rougher around the edges. The combination of their brains and Hezbollah's willingness to pursue martyrdom can produce highly formidable capabilities.

With Hezbollah under attack in Lebanon and Iran unable to send significant reinforcements, there is some possibility that Hezbollah might resort to staging an attack abroad as a way of countering the Israeli assault. If so, it is highly likely that operatives already are on the move; the organization has been known to use "off the shelf" operational plans in the past, and its targeting information and surveillance would need to be updated -- regardless of whether an order to strike is actually issued. It is reasonable to believe that Hezbollah would find it advantageous to coordinate with MOIS again, as in past operations. Whether the Iranians would see events through the same lens, however, is much less clear. Tehran might cooperate in an attack only if it is willing to seriously escalate the current conflict in the Middle East -- which, given its many interests in the region, does not appear so far to be the case.

Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.

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