The way i see it is that the spit 9 and P38J are a pretty good match up. On paper, the sustained turn advantage (no flaps) goes to the spit, the climb rate goes to the spit. The speed, zoom climb, slow-speed stability goes to the 38.
But mechanical advantages count for a suprisingly small amount of the factors which determine victory or defeat. Pilot skill by far and away counts the greatest. With closely matched a/c, as in this case, the pilot will determine the outcome 9 times out of 10.
There is no golden rule, no easy set-move which will cause you to win without fail. Each engagement is a complex sequence 3-D spatial permutations with near infinite possibilities. Saying that you should zoom and commence spiral climb at time X in the fight will win it for you is rubbish. Its your ability to read the situation and E, anticipate moves in advance and possible counters and plan to counter the counters etc, how you adapt in an instant, ability to surprise, your mastery of control of your a/c, the ability to track the enemy, your knowledge of a/c abilities at all altitudes and what that means vs theirs, learning your optimum speed for maneuvering; mastering these (or even getting good at them) are more important than focusing on a killer move.
In short, if you come up against a much better pilot, it almost doesnt matter what you or they are flying (unless you can 'tactically reposition'), the outcome is all but pre-determined. The best advice is to take losses in your stride, and learn from them by FILMING ALL YOUR ENGAGEMENTS and study them. Learn from both your victories and losses. Study them both. Work out what happened and why, and how you can employ or avoid those moves in the future. Seriously thats good advice, but you need to be diligent.