But is there an increase in frequency or severity of natural events? Or is it that the cycle is so long that history does not record far enough into the past?
Probably the most profound point brought forth thus far. How can we prove anything based on 150-200 years of meteorologicals observations when the whole earth system is about 4.5 billions years old ( that's 4 500 000 000 vs 200) . Some would call it not seeing farther than the end of our nose. We simply don't have enough data to prove or disprove anything. Every time there's somekind of natural disaster people are surprised. I even bet some would not see the next earthquake in california coming even tough the whole region is sitting on a fail line thousand of miles long.... Back here in Quebec, this past winter everytime we received more than 10 inches of snow it was like it was the first time it snowed in the media. I got news for everyone : there have always been hurricane and there will be in the future. Along with earthquake, typhoon, forest fire, snow, hail, rain, tornadoes, tsunami, thunder, lightning, drought, flood, volcanic eruption, solar flare, avalanches, meteor impact and what else. It's bad when it happen in populated area but that's how it is.
