Make no mistake, I am not a Pollyanna. I fully foresee the pain and dislocation millions are going to have to go through.
Brookes might argue it will create 3 jobs for everyone it eliminates, I don't share that optimism. I don't share that belief. At least not the same kind of jobs. At least not at the same pay.
All Knowledge Work is on the chopping block. Programmers, web designers, air traffic controllers, accountants, para-legals, chip designers, mathematicians, X-Ray readers, purchasing agents, stock brokers, administrative assistants, health insurance coders, etc, etc, etc ,etc.
Gone with the Wind. They may not be being thrown out the door this afternoon, but they are certainly being handed their hat.
We only need so many plumbers and if too many out of work programmers tried to retrain as plumbers, it would just flood the market and lower the wages for all.
There will be false starts. Companies will over de-labor too fast and have to add back for a time. Domain experts may eek out a remaining career concentrating on transferring their skill and knowledge into the Matrix. But the ultimate destination seems pretty clear to me.
In 5-10 years, I believe you will see some type of UBI. Maybe human labor is needed less, we begin to reduce our population. I’m not talking about putting people in ovens, but maybe people can get extra UBI for agreeing to voluntary sterilization. Is that a bad thing? I don’t think there is any particular good in merely more people. It might be it is better to have fewer people living nicer lives.
Maybe once we don’t need to aggregate labor in vast cities, people can spread out to calmer, more pleasant pastoral communities of under 10k. People can pursue interests they enjoy while robots and AI carry the load of unpleasant or dangerous work. After all, the ancient Greeks and Romans would have looked at our lives in horror. To them having to sell you labor to other men to eat was only a small step above slavery and prostitution.
In their minds, only a slave’s worth is calculated in their potential economic production. We need a new model for human worth, or maybe go back to an old one.
Maybe it’s time for space colonization.