THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Smoking Out Bad Science
By Lorraine Mooney
For the past 15 years the antismoking lobby has pushed the view that second hand cigarette smoke is a public health hazard. This was a shrewd tactic. For, having failed to persuade the most committed smokers to save themselves, they could use proof that passive smoking harms non smoking wives, children and co-workers to make the case for crimin- alizing smoking.
But the science fell off the campaign wagon two weeks ago when the definitive study on passive smoking, sponsored by the World Health Organization, reported no cancer risk at all. Don't bet that will change the crusaders' minds. The anti-smoking movement after all, has slipped from a health crusade to a moral one.
It is now obvious that anti-smoking activists have knowingly overstated the health risk of second hand smoke. The only definitive large- scale study on the subject was designed in 1988 by a WHO subgroup called the International Agency on Research on Cancer. It compared 650 lung-cancer patients with 1,542 healthy people in seven European countries. The results were expressed as "risk ratios," where the normal risk for a nonsmoker of contracting lung cancer is set as 1. Exposure to tobacco smoke in the home raised the risk to 1.16, and exposure to smoke in the workplace increased it to 1.17. This supposedly represents a 16% or 17% increase. But the admitted margin of error is so wide- 0.93 to 1.44 that the true risk ratio could be trivial or nonexistent.