General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: CptTrips on May 20, 2022, 12:46:56 PM
Title: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on May 20, 2022, 12:46:56 PM
Whoa. Went to go make breakfast, came back and the market had tanked.
S&P @ 3858 was a MAJOR, no... CRITICAL support level and the market just blew through it like cheap, wet tissue paper. I was expecting a multi-day slog like it had at 4000.
If S&P can't sustainably claw that back, I don't see anything stopping it durably until 3000. (Maybe one or two sucker rallies along the way.)
If it gets to S&P 3000, by then the retail investor will have started to panic sell and the smirking buy-da-dip bro's on Redit will have had the arrogance beaten out of them. They'll be quietly staring at the charts in disbelief. The days of the Tulip bulb\Bitcoin\NFT and Redit AMC\Games Stop Apes are over. It's time to learn about Moral Hazard and Hubris. It's time to pump wealth from the pockets of Dumb-Money to the pockets of Smart-Money.
It might pause at ~3000 while the muppets wait for the Fed cavalry to ride over the hill. Nope. Not this time. The Fed isn't going to lift a finger until inflation is down to 3-4%. How long do you think THAT'S going to take? The stock market will be rubble and burnt corpses by then. If it gets to S&P 3000, I can see a reasonable chance it eventually gets to 2000.
What is interesting is watching how placid the VIX is. That suggests to me that the smart-money know EXACTLY what is happening. Knew it for a long time, and this unwinding is organized and orderly and planned and programmed into the algo's. Smart-money is not panicking. Smart-money is harvesting dumb-money wealth. Dumb-money still hasn't admitted to themselves what's coming.
The trick is you can't let it drop too much too fast or too long or else you spook the suckers. Stocks can't sell to themselves. There has to be a greater fool who thinks now is the time to buy that dog-sht off you. You have to ease off occasionally and let the muppet think the worst is over. It's hit the bottom. Now it the time to put in the last of the dry powder and buy at the bottom and recover everything they've already lost. They are already imagining in their heads how they will brag to their friends about how they didn't panic and continued to buy low at the bottom and made a killing. At that point a new crop of muppets is ready for harvest. Every crash needs bag-holders for the smart-money to get out.
Casinos play games like this. They cannot blatantly manipulate outcome of slot-machines (probably their biggest money maker. Every tourist feels comfortable playing slots). That's watched pretty closely by G-men and will bring serious punishment. They don't have to. They can track granny from Omaha and watch her plays slots though the night. They can track how long she's played, how much she's lost, and know from models and demographics about at the time she is ready to call it quits. Then out of the blue a waitress walks up and congratulates her for being the 10,000 pull on that machine this month and the casino is awarding her $10 is free tokens. Now she has a second wind and decides to stay up past her 8:30pm bedtime to at least play out those free tokens before bed. By 11:30pm she has not only blown through that, but another $80 of her own money before finally crawling off to bed.
You got to play out a catch with a little line occasionally to make sure you get them all the way into the boat. Same with market sucker rallies during a crash.
Funny thing about math. If you lose 50% in a crash, you then have to make 100% profit on what's left just to get back to where you started and break even. It's a lot easier to lose 50% than it is to make 100% gain. I guess that's where that saying comes from that you slog your way up the stairs going up, but jump out the window to go down in a crash.
And yes, markets always come back. This one will too. But it took the NASDAQ 15 years to get back to it's pre-tech bust high.
I don't expect we will see Nov 2021 market valuations again until 2031. Bag-holders get to hold all that dog-sht for a decade for no reward what-so-ever just to break even, or sell before 2031 and realize the loss. Good luck with that.
This is all just my opinion of course. I could be totally wrong. There is a non-zero chance of a strong bear market rally at some point that might last a month and claw all the way back to S&P 4500. It won't break the resistance at 4600 though. It will then collapse all over again, and again until the muppets learn the object lesson. IMHO, this will continue until the market reaches historically reasonable valuations or until the Fed sees inflation at 4%.
Sorry for the long read, but I had to get most of what I wanted to say out in the first post.
Eagler will lock this thread in 3....2....1.....
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: decoy on May 20, 2022, 01:18:53 PM
I don't know who said that the true test of another man's intelligence is how closely his opinion agrees with your own, but I believe it. Trips, we may disagree on other issues, but I think your market analysis is spot on. Since the bear bust of 2008-09, the market has been one bull after another. I've been expecting a drawback for a couple of years and if this isn't it, it'll do until one comes along.
But in early 2008 the S&P was 1300, almost unthinkable for the last 8-9 years, and it lost 46% of it's value before it bottomed between 6-700.
I always heard something from my grandfather, but I never paid attention until my econ professor, and major advisor at school, said, "The bulls and the bears make money and the hogs get slaughtered."
If you're in the market and you don't have a broker who knows how to play both bulls and bears, you need a new broker.
Preach on.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eviscerate on May 20, 2022, 01:21:56 PM
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on May 20, 2022, 01:32:42 PM
I have not locked a single thread...I am not this bbs admin...
As far as this one goes yes we are no where near the bottom...
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on May 20, 2022, 02:41:23 PM
The Bulls are trying really hard to to claw back SP 3858. They can't afford to go into the weekend below that. That sets up a really dangerous momentum. Markets seldom bottom on a Fri. Not sure how that got so far past them. It will break sooner or later but expected more of a fight. It's like holding the Rhine.
Oh, and the other shoe to drop.... not sure where the trip wire is, but there is a near historic level of margin debt hovering over the markets head. If you start hitting margin calls, then people start liquidating anything to meet that call. Which crashes other assets, which creates more margin calls for others. Wash, rinse, repeat.
That starts feeding into itself as a recursive, self-accelerating function. That's what REALLY scares me. That is non-linear and beyond the control of even the smart-money. That will no longer be a orderly planned unwinding, but a primal, unthinking panic. Like yelling "FIRE!" in a crowded theater.
[Edit]
Wow. That was exciting. Like watching a great football game. ;) It was a maximum effort, but the Bulls pulled it back up. That was a hell of a stick save.
The problem is, it has been broken. Not just by a point, but by a non-trivial amount. They pulled it back, but the psychological damage might be done. Everyone has seen now that support level can be broken.
You can't un-see what has been seen. You can't un-ring a bell.
Next week will be interesting. And in a couple of weeks the QT actually starts. And a couple of weeks after that, another 0.5-0.75% hike. And another in July. Etc.
This market can run a bit longer, but it's only going to die tired. ;)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on May 20, 2022, 04:16:03 PM
PPT going at it to keep it positive at close
Edit
Slowing the fall is my guess
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on May 20, 2022, 07:50:53 PM
Ah. I have a theory on what happened.
A whole boat load of options are expiring tomorrow. Today is the last trading day to cover.
I think a bunch of shorts didn't get quite the drop they needed yet and had to buy to cover. They waited until the last hour to see if they could get a lucky break and then bought like crazy.
That would make sense. So the market got a last minute reprieve from the Governor. ;)
I don't think they will have such luck next week. Also next week we have a slew of retail reporting. You've seen how that has gone so far. So I'll expect blood in the streets next week.
And the week after, the long awaited QT starts. That won't make the market feel any better.
Then they'll get a two week breather, before the next rate hike. Maybe a 0.75% ;)
(Blast from the past. Remember when the Bulls were still cocky instead of crying in their Wheaties? Warning language.)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Peanut1 on May 20, 2022, 08:13:38 PM
Thank God I don't give a frenchmans fuq about the market. Own my Home (29 Acres), own 3 vehicles of which none rely on any form of equipment I can't repair on my own and have no debt. Sorry to you sucked that are slaves to the system cuz you only got ur own azzes to worry about. Oh and retirement?! Don't need it if you ain't retarded. Throw a nickle in the grass and you'll be saved.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 20, 2022, 08:17:54 PM
So ... you're off grid and all your vehicles are electric (with plenty of spare batteries for the future when the old ones wear out)? Maybe you have horses and oxen for backup with a field of hay and field of oats alongside all the foodstuff you harvest?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eviscerate on May 20, 2022, 08:19:51 PM
So ... you're off grid and all your vehicles are electric (with plenty of spare batteries for the future when the old ones wear out)? Maybe you have horses and oxen for backup with a field of hay and field of oats alongside all the foodstuff you harvest?
Own and operate a market garden/homestead as well as a custom Lumber business. I have enough parts on hand for 2 of my vehicles to last me a lifetime. As well as a small scale Oil distillery that I can make more than enough deisle to operate any of my equipment as much as necessary. If you are paper pusher in a office you have nothing to provide anybody when watermelon hits the fan. I have enough that people are in need of that no matter the state of currency I will be just fine. I regularly go 4-6 months without stepping foot off of my land.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Peanut1 on May 20, 2022, 08:45:12 PM
if your bet your own life on the market, you are the owner of a severe mental deficit. Not once in my short life or the long life of 2 generations before me have we had to give a good Golly-gee about the market. In fact our family thrives off of morons like you that can't make ends meet when some moron you voted for messes up ur 401k.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 20, 2022, 09:00:19 PM
Please calm down. No matter how much faith you have in your homestead independence it won't do you much good if you stress yourself to death over other's not being as smart or skilled as you in that regard. :aok
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eviscerate on May 20, 2022, 09:08:51 PM
if your bet your own life on the market, you are the owner of a severe mental deficit. Not once in my short life or the long life of 2 generations before me have we had to give a good Golly-gee about the market. In fact our family thrives off of morons like you that can't make ends meet when some moron you voted for messes up ur 401k.
Morons like me? I said nothing in this thread about investing in the stock market.
Did you know that studies show the smarter you think you are, the more inept you are?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 20, 2022, 09:17:04 PM
Morons like me? I said nothing in this thread about investing in the stock market.
Did you know that studies show the smarter you think you are, the more inept you are?
I believe you reference the Dunning-Kruger effect. I'd cut Peanut some slack. To me he sounds like a skilled and smart fella. I think he just lets topics like the stock market rile him a bit and for no good reason. The skills and circumstances in his life that he describes sound rather admirable to me. Even if I'm not able to swing it like he has. :)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on May 20, 2022, 09:21:36 PM
Thank God I don't give a frenchmans fuq about the market. Own my Home (29 Acres), own 3 vehicles of which none rely on any form of equipment I can't repair on my own and have no debt. Sorry to you sucked that are slaves to the system cuz you only got ur own azzes to worry about. Oh and retirement?! Don't need it if you ain't retarded. Throw a nickle in the grass and you'll be saved.
Well, if you have no stock investments then I don't see why this thread would interest you. But thanks for stopping by.
By the by, I have an apartment in town for work, but I also have 15 acres of rural land in the boonies. I carved in my own road. I built two cabins and an observatory from scratch with my own hands, mostly by myself. I can repair most mechanical things. I can weld a little. When I fully retire out there I plan on building chicken runs and an aquaponics system. I might runs some goats, but cattle are a little more than I want to deal with. Besides the way my land is situated it a perfect funnel for deer to cross my land. I can harvest those. Millions of wild cotton tail. Even some wild hog. But I have to wait to be out there full time to have animals.
But I also have 401k's from decades of working in the tech industry. A lot of that money was free from company match and stock options. Why would I turn that down free money and the chance to see that money grow tax free for 30 years. But those investments are a responsibility to manage prudently and I'd prefer to not see it vanish through lazyness not to watch the markets carefully and make sure what is mine isn't wiped out in periodic waves of mass insanity. I go long periods in healthy markets not paying much attention to the accounts only rebalancing yearly. But in times of high risk or generational inflection points (especially so close to retiring from my career), I have to pull on my big boy pants and manage my assets. Most everyone calling themselves a financial advisor I realize are drooling idiots after talking to them for 10 minutes so I manage my own assets.
Would you never check your vehicle oil, hydraulic fluid, tire pressure or do routine maintenance to protect your equipment? Investments are no different. If you want valuable things you own to last, you have to take responsibility to maintain them.
Besides You might find before this is all over, that no man is as much an island as you think you are.
In any case. Uhhh, thanks for your feedback.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 20, 2022, 09:26:34 PM
Well, if you have no stock investments then I don't see why this thread would interest you. But thanks for stopping by.
By the by, I have an apartment in town for work, but I also have 15 acres of rural land in the boonies. I carved in my own road. I built two cabins and an observatory from scratch with my own hands, mostly by myself. I can repair most mechanical things. I can weld a little. When I fully retire out there I plan on building chicken runs and an aquaponics system. I might runs some goats, but cattle are a little more than I want to deal with. Besides the way my land is situated it a perfect funnel for deer to cross my land. I can harvest those. Millions of wild cotton tail. Even some wild hog. But I have to wait to be out there full time to have animals.
But I also have 401k's from decades of working in the tech industry. A lot of that money was free from company match and stock options. Why would I turn that down free money and the chance to see that money grow tax free for 30 years. But those investments are a responsibility to manage prudently and I'd prefer to not see it vanish through lazyness not to watch the markets carefully and make sure what is mine isn't wiped out in periodic waves of mass insanity. I go long periods in healthy markets not paying much attention to the accounts only rebalancing yearly. But in times of high risk or generational inflection points (especially so close to retiring from my career), I have to pull on my big boy pants and manage my assets. Most everyone calling themselves a financial advisor I realize are drooling idiots after talking to them for 10 minutes so I manage my own assets.
Would you never check your vehicle oil, hydraulic fluid, tire pressure or do routine maintenance to protect your equipment? Investments are no different. If you want valuable things you own to last, you have to take responsibility to maintain them.
Besides You might find before this is all over, that no man is as much an island as you think you are.
In any case. Uhhh, thanks for your feedback.
Both of you have very good reasons to have a safe and secure (as well as rewarding) future. My wife and I live a very rudimentary and spartan existence, comparatively. :)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Peanut1 on May 20, 2022, 10:11:31 PM
Please calm down. No matter how much faith you have in your homestead independence it won't do you much good if you stress yourself to death over other's not being as smart or skilled as you in that regard. :aok
I'm likely one of the dumbest people you would ever meet when it comes to going with the pattern of the grain....But I'm very confident that shear hardwork and the luck of a British monk is the reason my family and I lead a stress less life that many people in my community benefit from.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Peanut1 on May 20, 2022, 10:19:14 PM
Well, if you have no stock investments then I don't see why this thread would interest you. But thanks for stopping by.
By the by, I have an apartment in town for work, but I also have 15 acres of rural land in the boonies. I carved in my own road. I built two cabins and an observatory from scratch with my own hands, mostly by myself. I can repair most mechanical things. I can weld a little. When I fully retire out there I plan on building chicken runs and an aquaponics system. I might runs some goats, but cattle are a little more than I want to deal with. Besides the way my land is situated it a perfect funnel for deer to cross my land. I can harvest those. Millions of wild cotton tail. Even some wild hog. But I have to wait to be out there full time to have animals.
But I also have 401k's from decades of working in the tech industry. A lot of that money was free from company match and stock options. Why would I turn that down free money and the chance to see that money grow tax free for 30 years. But those investments are a responsibility to manage prudently and I'd prefer to not see it vanish through lazyness not to watch the markets carefully and make sure what is mine isn't wiped out in periodic waves of mass insanity. I go long periods in healthy markets not paying much attention to the accounts only rebalancing yearly. But in times of high risk or generational inflection points (especially so close to retiring from my career), I have to pull on my big boy pants and manage my assets. Most everyone calling themselves a financial advisor I realize are drooling idiots after talking to them for 10 minutes so I manage my own assets.
Would you never check your vehicle oil, hydraulic fluid, tire pressure or do routine maintenance to protect your equipment? Investments are no different. If you want valuable things you own to last, you have to take responsibility to maintain them.
Besides You might find before this is all over, that no man is as much an island as you think you are.
In any case. Uhhh, thanks for your feedback.
I'm glad you have a primitive backup route. That is what humans need. It's is not possible to fail when you are in complete control of your situation. I put 6 years of my life into working for a World Class ski resort with the best retirement plan available to anybody in my area. The day I quit that ratrace I pulled out every cent that was in it and donated it to the world central kitchen. Dumb move.... Yup! But I don't want my greasy money in the filthy pockets of sum fuqtard in the sears tower.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Shuffler on May 21, 2022, 07:19:13 AM
We also have a group that includes doctors, triage nurses, water, food supplies, and the ability to protect those supplies. The list is far greater, but you get the point.
Just like carrying. Best to be prepared and not need it. Though things are looking pretty bleak lately.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on May 21, 2022, 07:39:49 AM
S&P 500 at 2400 is the point where the fed will reverse again and start lowering interest rates and with it another round of QE to save the country from falling into a great depression ...thus starting the next bubble round...IMHO
It's about the true value of any of it without the over a decade of free money pumping it up
Between now and then things should get very interesting
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Maverick on May 21, 2022, 08:46:33 AM
I thought it was interesting when the news hit that bit coin went down about 50%. You used to hear all kinds of folks talking about how great it was / is but now it's pretty much crickets. I don't have any, just curious about it over time.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: -gg- on May 21, 2022, 09:51:56 AM
Own and operate a market garden/homestead as well as a custom Lumber business. I have enough parts on hand for 2 of my vehicles to last me a lifetime. As well as a small scale Oil distillery that I can make more than enough deisle to operate any of my equipment as much as necessary. If you are paper pusher in a office you have nothing to provide anybody when watermelon hits the fan. I have enough that people are in need of that no matter the state of currency I will be just fine. I regularly go 4-6 months without stepping foot off of my land.
That's really great. I envy you!
I'm trying to save as much as I can so I can but land and set anything on it that I want. Baby steps for me but that's my dream.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: -gg- on May 21, 2022, 09:53:25 AM
Well, if you have no stock investments then I don't see why this thread would interest you. But thanks for stopping by.
By the by, I have an apartment in town for work, but I also have 15 acres of rural land in the boonies. I carved in my own road. I built two cabins and an observatory from scratch with my own hands, mostly by myself. I can repair most mechanical things. I can weld a little. When I fully retire out there I plan on building chicken runs and an aquaponics system. I might runs some goats, but cattle are a little more than I want to deal with. Besides the way my land is situated it a perfect funnel for deer to cross my land. I can harvest those. Millions of wild cotton tail. Even some wild hog. But I have to wait to be out there full time to have animals.
But I also have 401k's from decades of working in the tech industry. A lot of that money was free from company match and stock options. Why would I turn that down free money and the chance to see that money grow tax free for 30 years. But those investments are a responsibility to manage prudently and I'd prefer to not see it vanish through lazyness not to watch the markets carefully and make sure what is mine isn't wiped out in periodic waves of mass insanity. I go long periods in healthy markets not paying much attention to the accounts only rebalancing yearly. But in times of high risk or generational inflection points (especially so close to retiring from my career), I have to pull on my big boy pants and manage my assets. Most everyone calling themselves a financial advisor I realize are drooling idiots after talking to them for 10 minutes so I manage my own assets.
Would you never check your vehicle oil, hydraulic fluid, tire pressure or do routine maintenance to protect your equipment? Investments are no different. If you want valuable things you own to last, you have to take responsibility to maintain them.
Besides You might find before this is all over, that no man is as much an island as you think you are.
In any case. Uhhh, thanks for your feedback.
That's really great. You're set up very well. :)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: -gg- on May 21, 2022, 09:56:34 AM
I thought it was interesting when the news hit that bit coin went down about 50%. You used to hear all kinds of folks talking about how great it was / is but now it's pretty much crickets. I don't have any, just curious about it over time.
I never bought any either. Well, a little tiny amount of Doge coin back when it first came out, but basically nothing. Never understood or trusted any type of crypto. I still don't
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on May 21, 2022, 09:57:34 AM
I thought it was interesting when the news hit that bit coin went down about 50%. You used to hear all kinds of folks talking about how great it was / is but now it's pretty much crickets. I don't have any, just curious about it over time.
Block-chain as an algorithms is a useful pattern. The existing calculated tokens have some value. If you made a competing algorithm (not that hard) to use for ....something, you would have to calculate all those tokens which by design takes time and effort. So have pre-computed tokens would made a system quicker to setup and seed with tokens on day one. That has some value for that work already done that is it built from. So like a tulip bulb does have a value ($0.50?) it is no where near what an out of control mania whipped it up ($700k???) to in the example above.
A Bitcoin has some value. It is a pre-calculated token of a decent crypto algorithm. I can think of possible commercial uses. Not in any real non-Fed distorted reality is it anywhere near the value of where it is now and certainly not where a lot of strange people have bought in at and put in their whole life savings. I honestly predict in 2 years you'll be reading about the epidemic of suicides among Bitcoin investors. A lot of people are going to lose everything. A lot of these are young people with families. Sad.
I could even see it as a mechanism for transferring a digital representation of real sovereign money like a digital debit card. But it is only a bucket to transfer sovereign money in, and not in and of itself a currency nor ever will be. (Well I think one country tried it. I don't think it has gone well.)
If I can't pay my taxes with it, it ain't money.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on May 21, 2022, 12:43:14 PM
To me, many aspects of the world seem way out of whack.
But just focusing on financial conditions, I'm getting the feeling we are in for a huge crash (stocks, bonds, real estate cut in half), then the Fed will print $100 trillion. (But maybe the Fed prints the $100 trillion before the full crash plays out.)
I think $100 trillion will be printed at some point because the government can't afford to pay interest on debt if interest rates go up on government debt. So it will need the Fed to print money to buy Federal debt (debt monetization). That will give the government cash to pay interest, and it will push interest rates down. The government can only have interest rates higher for a short time -- for a crash of a year or two. It can't afford higher interest rates indefinitely.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: -gg- on May 21, 2022, 12:48:22 PM
To me, many aspects of the world seem way out of whack.
But just focusing on financial conditions, I'm getting the feeling we are in for a huge crash (stocks, bonds, real estate cut in half), then the Fed will print $100 trillion. (But maybe the Fed prints the $100 trillion before the full crash plays out.)
I think $100 trillion will be printed at some point because the government can't afford to pay interest on debt if interest rates go up on government debt. So it will need the Fed to print money to buy Federal debt (debt monetization). That will give the government cash to pay interest, and it will push interest rates down. The government can only have interest rates higher for a short time -- for a crash of a year or two. It can't afford higher interest rates indefinitely.
I feel the same. Big crash coming.
But if the feds print 100 trillion, wouldn't that just make inflation get much worse?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on May 21, 2022, 01:38:14 PM
But if the feds print 100 trillion, wouldn't that just make inflation get much worse?
I think so -- a lot worse.
That's how it has worked throughout history. Except for a single counter example: Japan.
Japan has been printing money and using it to buy government debt for decades. They have not had gargantuan inflation -- at least not yet. No one is sure why. The leading hypothesis is that the Japanese don't buy enough as consumers for that built-up money to cause inflation. More technically, the Japanese velocity of money has just plummeted over those decades. If the money is printed, but no one spends it, it isn't inflationary.
In the US, if there is a big crash first, that is deflationary. A big crash would cause lots of prices to decrease. I'd expect the Fed to react by quickly printing a large amount of money, which leads back into inflation.
So, I think crash (and prices go down), followed by huge printing (and prices go up).
But I could very well be wrong. It could be only a little crash then printing and inflation. Or maybe we Japanify and have more printing, but no one spends it, and prices don't go up. To me that last one seems less likely.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on May 21, 2022, 01:53:24 PM
This is a graph of how much US money there is. The government/Fed has increased the money supply from $1.4 trillion in 2007 to $18 trillion today.
Because of the 2008 crash (bubble in mortgage-backed securities), money supply was increased by 185% over 13 years. Because of the Covid fubar, money supply was increased by another 350% in 2 years.
If we have a stock, bond, and real-estate crash (everything bubble), why not quickly increase money supply by 555%, print a fresh $100 trillion?
Another way to look at it. It took 200 years to get $1.4 trillion in US money. It took another 13 years to go from $1.4 to $4 trillion. It took another 2 years to go from $4 to $18 trillion.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on May 21, 2022, 02:02:12 PM
If we have a stock, bond, and real-estate crash (everything bubble), why not quickly increase money supply by 555%, print a fresh $100 trillion?
Because the Fed wants those asset classes to crash (now) as well as a recession to destroy demand through destruction of wealth effect so they can cool inflation without having to raise rates enough to blow up the national debt payments.
Also a recession causes unemployment which helps easy the tight labor market which also helps cool inflation without having to rely on rate increases alone.
The Fed "Put" is dead until inflation is tamed. Let the slaughter begin! (Says the guy shorting the market. ;))
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on May 21, 2022, 02:10:27 PM
Japan has been printing money and using it to buy government debt for decades. They have not had gargantuan inflation -- at least not yet. No one is sure why.
Population aging\crash is my guess. They are deflating through population decline as fast as they are inflating through printing.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: decoy on May 21, 2022, 04:20:24 PM
But if the feds print 100 trillion, wouldn't that just make inflation get much worse?
Bingo, Gina. What we're seeing right now is called Discretionary Bias Inflation, which occurs when you have massive amounts of discretionary spending (in the current case, all those economic supplement checks, extended unemployment payments, all in connection with the pandemic) without a subsequent rise in the cost income.
Discretionary spending, in households, is the money that household spends after necessities have been taken care of. In government, discretionary spending also includes maintenance of monuments, national parks, gov't grants to every special interest group that can afford a lobbyist, and such.
Now we have to visit the barber shop to split a few hairs. The Federal Mint prints the money, the Federal Reserve controls the money supply. They do that by raising and lowering the prime rate, which is the rate Fed banks can borrow money from the Fed. The importance is that all loans by your local banking company are tied to the Fed rate.
I can keep going, but that's the meat and potatoes. I will say that the terms for the members of the Fed are fourteen years. It was set up in that way so that the members wouldn't play partisan politics with the money supply. Not sure that's working these days.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on May 21, 2022, 04:47:57 PM
Because the Fed wants those asset classes to crash (now) as well as a recession to destroy demand through destruction of wealth effect so they can cool inflation without having to raise rates enough to blow up the national debt payments.
I agree that the Fed wants a crash. To close wealth disparity a little and take a chunk out of inflation.
But then I think they will print $100 trillion and get back to monetizing debt.
Because if they don't, the US can't pay its debts.
So, crash (for a year or two), then back to monetization and huge inflation.
I don't see how we can avoid big inflation in future other than outright debt default. Nations don't pick outright default if they can inflate it away instead.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on May 21, 2022, 04:49:50 PM
For whatever reasons, all developed nations show the same trend in that as the populations become better educated and more affluent, and more of their wealth is generated as non-farm labor, the marriage\birth rates decline. WE just don't live on farms anymore and so don't need to breed our personal supply of cheap labor, and we have institutionalized retirement system so don't need to breed a gaggle of offspring to support us in old age. The US is on the same trend, just a shallower slope.
However the US has a super-power in that if we need more young, motivated workers we can simply import them through immigration. There is not shortage of applicants and we can afford to take our pick of the best. We've done it before in our history. The West was won mostly by immigrants not native born.
Japan however, for various cultural reasons, would never allow that in any material numbers. So their demographics are their inescapable destiny.
Will the last elderly Japanese gentleman please turn off the lights on your way out. ;)
If you want to bake your noodle watch this guy's lectures (if he is right, China and Russia are fq'ed long term):
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: decoy on May 21, 2022, 08:06:26 PM
I agree that the Fed wants a crash. To close wealth disparity a little and take a chunk out of inflation.
But then I think they will print $100 trillion and get back to monetizing debt.
Because if they don't, the US can't pay its debts.
So, crash (for a year or two), then back to monetization and huge inflation.
I don't see how we can avoid big inflation in future other than outright debt default. Nations don't pick outright default if they can inflate it away instead.
I want to respectfully disagree with the idea that the Fed wants a the market to crash to close wealth disparity. Here's why...
Wealth disparity is a talking point of the liberal left. The Federal Reserve Board (the Fed, which is not the same as the Federal Government - I apologize if I seem condescending) members are appointed by the president and serve 14 year terms. Doing the math on that will show that any appointees between 2008-16 will be coming off the Board between now and 2030. That means that some of them would have to live with the consequences of their actions (or resign) for possibly eight more years.
Also, once a member serves a full term, they cannot be reappointed. Someone appointed to fill an unexpired term may be reappointed, but that doesn't happen much.
Keep in mind that the Fed was created to avoid another market crash similar to the one in 1929.
I'm trying my best to keep my points non-political, but if a party in power, not necessarily the one in power now, wants to flood the market with money, there are other ways to do it than by trying to influence the Fed.
As for the U.S. paying its debts, it can't and never will. Here's the best and easiest example to prove that point. If you have a landline telephone, and not that many people do anymore, look at the last bill you got. There's a Federal Excise Tax, which in our case, generally amounts to between $.26 and $.30 every month. That tax as implemented by Woodrow Wilson and is used specifically to pay off the debt accumulated by the United States in WWI. His reasoning was that, since the 'poor' people had sent their kids off to fight the war, the 'rich' people (those with telephones) should pay for it. And we're still paying for it.
The problem I have with the Fed is the same problem I had with them in 2008, when they dropped the prime rate to 0%. Since controlling the prime rate is the only way the Fed can control the money supply, once they get to zero, they can't do anything else to increase the money supply. To restrict the money supply, they can always raise the prime rate, but it never goes much higher than 5.5 or 6%
Sorry. I didn't mean to deliver a lecture.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: -gg- on May 21, 2022, 08:25:54 PM
do land prices drop during a real estate crash too? I want to buy at least an acre of land with power to or close to it.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on May 21, 2022, 08:29:24 PM
Michael Burry of Big Short fame (played by Christian Bale).
Just as a data point for consideration. Neither endorsing nor disputing....
do land prices drop during a real estate crash too? I want to buy at least an acre of land with power to or close to it.
I'm no expert on that. I suspect it will to some extent as a part of the general "Risk Off" environment.
If you are talking raw, unimproved land with no house on it, that is really a completely different beast than land with a house. You might have trouble getting a loan as banks consider raw land a speculation asset. A lot of land sales have to be owner financed. THe interest rate might be higher than land wit ha house on it because banks don't consider raw land good collateral.
When I was looking for my land I found this book had a lot of good general info for a newbie that had no experience.
I ended up going a totally different route by getting land through the Texas Veteran's Land Board. Twice a year they have an auction where properties vets had purchased through the program and eventually defaulted on are re-sold. The first auction is limited to vets only and the second auction is open to the public. I won my bid on the first auction. What was great about that program was I'm sure I got it under market value (less investors/brokers to compete against in the vet only auction) and also didn't have to put any money down. I just had to start payments (30y loan). That gave me free cash to start building right away. I paid it off in 8 years. I hate debt. ;)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on May 21, 2022, 09:59:10 PM
do land prices drop during a real estate crash too? I want to buy at least an acre of land with power to or close to it.
If there is a large market crash, I would think land will go down in price some, too. But land prices are less volatile usually than house prices. It can depend on particulars of the land and the local situation.
One thing to keep in mind is that none of this stuff of crashes and future inflation is provably certain. This is guys, including me, discussing opinions and gut feel.
Also, if you get a lot of utility or enjoyment from it, that can override short-term fluctuation in prices.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on May 21, 2022, 11:54:18 PM
I want to respectfully disagree with the idea that the Fed wants a the market to crash to close wealth disparity. Here's why... Wealth disparity is a talking point of the liberal left.
Communists believe that all wealth disparity is bad. But like many things in the universe, some types are good, and some types are bad.
Good wealth disparity is a result of a free market. People who make stuff people want get paid more than people who don't. It is a productive motivation and leads to better quality of life on average over a whole society.
Bad wealth disparity is a result of a government gifting huge amounts of free money to favored classes of people. That enriches some groups at the expense of others, based solely on their relationship to the government. That contributes to instability.
Quote
Keep in mind that the Fed was created to avoid another market crash similar to the one in 1929.
The Fed was created in 1913. The Fed didn't avoid the 1929 crash, or the resulting Great Depression. And market volatility has been higher post Fed than pre Fed.
How can that be? It's because economists cannot predict the market. So if they are part of a control system on the market, they can be adding volatility, not reducing it. It doesn't even require ill intent. They can have the best intentions for the long-term future of the US economy and still mess it all up.
It has given us this sequence of events:
-- Currency crisis of the 1990's -- Fed pumps in liquidity -- Money goes into new hot thing -> dot-com bubble -- Fed realizes the bubble is out of control -> starts to remove liquidity -- Dot-com crash
-- Fed pumps in liquidity -- Money goes into new hot thing -> mortgage backed securities/real-estate bubble -- Fed realizes the bubble is out of control -> starts to remove liquidity -- 2008 crash
-- Fed pumps in liquidity. Also, Covid fubar crisis. Fed pumps in gigantically more liquidity. -- Money is so huge that it goes into everything (stocks, bonds, and real estate) -> everything bubble -- Fed realizes the bubble is out of control -> starts to remove liquidity <------ We are here right now
Quote
As for the U.S. paying its debts, it can't and never will.
I'm talking about the US paying the interest on its debt, not repaying all its debt down to zero debt. The US will never have zero debt, as you say. But it has to pay the interest on that debt, or it is a default.
Quote
[on motivations of the Fed]
In addition to the above dynamic, I'm sure the Fed knows that it cannot keep interest rates high for too long, or the government won't be able to pay interest on debt. Yet the Fed has a window to try to correct the bubble and battle inflation. After the bubble is reduced and inflation is reduced, then they can reduce interest rates. If they are lucky, it goes like this: Bubble fixed. Inflation fixed. Bad sort of wealth disparity reduced. Then interest rates can go down. Government can pay its interest. GDP goes back to growing in real terms. Nation grows its way out of debt problem. (I'm skeptical that this Goldilocks path will play out completely, though.)
Or, one can believe that the Fed has dark motivations. Creating a money pump to transfer money and control away from the plebeians and concentrate it into the hands of the plutocrats. Your cronies get into the market. You pump it. Your cronies get out of the market (maybe even go short). You crash it. Repeat.
Both interpretations -- (1) good intent but blindness to the folly and (2) dark designs (or even a mixture of both) -- give the same result. So it is hard to know which it is based only on action and results.
Quote
to flood the market with money, there are other ways to do it than by trying to influence the Fed.
Not when it's increasing the money supply from $1.4 trillion to $18 trillion. That requires a country's central bank (the organization in a country that determines money supply). The Fed is our version of a central bank.
Anyway, nothing I'm talking about here is different from one party to the other. It's just history and economic reality.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on May 22, 2022, 06:24:36 AM
As shown they discovered the bubble and bust cycle a couple of cycles ago..
Each one is worse than the one before it..
They need to refill their quiver - They need the higher interest rates and QT just to lower the rates and print new money out of thin air (QE) when they have caused enough pain to so called "pop the bubble "
Problem is they don't cause/allow enough pain for it to correct far enough to remove the bloat they caused in the previous bubble to be completely removed.
And they can't stop themselves from ruining the money supply by printing $$$$ and giving them out at lower and lower rates...as the next bubble grows.
We had a great opportunity to correct most of this in March 2020 but instead they used it as an excuse to make it much worse..
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: decoy on May 22, 2022, 07:41:51 AM
do land prices drop during a real estate crash too? I want to buy at least an acre of land with power to or close to it.
A real estate crash is possible, but not one like the housing bubble burst of 15 years ago. Take a one sentence look at the market crash on Black Monday. People owed more money on stocks that they had bought on the margin, and when the margins were called, they defaulted, and the market tanked.
My Daddy, who was born on Oct 27th, 1929, two days before Black Monday, grew up in the depression and never lost his fear that it would happen again. In the 1970s, farmers across the nation were borrowing money to buy land at ridiculous prices. Farmland that was worth $300/acre was being sold for $1000/acre. Daddy was afraid those debts would be called and farmers would default, causing a similar drop in the economy to the effect on Black Monday. In the last fifty years, though, that's a lot more stable than it was.
As for me, I can't tell you what small plots are going for these days because my wife and I have what we want and we're not looking. But generally, in rural property, the smaller the tract, the higher the cost per acre. 1000 acres of timberland will sell for $2000/acre while a 5 acre undeveloped residential site will go for $4500-5000/acre. But that's south Georgia. I'm guessing you're not looking for land in south Georgia.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on May 23, 2022, 01:52:31 PM
The Fed was created in 1913. The Fed didn't avoid the 1929 crash, or the resulting Great Depression. And market volatility has been higher post Fed than pre Fed.
Anyway, nothing I'm talking about here is different from one party to the other. It's just history and economic reality.
You're correct. I was wrong. But the Federal Reserve was created to prevent money supply volatility, just in response to the financial crisis of 1907.
It was the Securities Exchange Commission that came into being following the market crash of 1929.
I appreciate you pointing out my error.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on May 23, 2022, 05:35:15 PM
Another .5 joke of an increase announced today..and the market goes up
Well, I expected more pain given all the retail reporting that is doing just as bad as the earlier ones that had a very negative reaction.
Although a relief rally would not be out of the realm of possibility given the historic 7 straight weeks of decline.
However in June we get a 0.5-0.75% hike AND the start of QT which I've seen as the equivalent of a 0.5-0.75% rate hike. So there might be the effective result of a 1-1.5% hike starting in June and going further. If that's true, I can understand their fear of going past that in one month. Though they are in a real hard place because they delayed so long. They might have to do things they'd prefer not too because they are so late.
I think they still think they don't have to go down that far and still hope that some of the supply chain tangles get unscrewed and that will help ease inflation as well.
Also, "inflation" is measured YoY. So they will start getting better numbers over time as out previous year inflation at a given month will already have started rising so the increase will appear numerically lowering in comparison. So we will soon get to a really annoying time where officially reported "inflation" growth rate will go to 2-4% and the Fed will declare victory, but actual prices will not have lowered at all.
Regular folks aren't going to care about clever numerical statistic trick. The will care about no longer being able to afford their groceries like they could a couple of years ago.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on May 25, 2022, 03:48:05 PM
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Maverick on May 26, 2022, 09:42:55 AM
There has been a lot of digital and print ink detailing the facade that inflation is "transitory". The reality is that the RATE of inflation is transitory. That can go up and down depending on the amount of "money" that is available in a financial system. The effects of inflation are hardly anything resembling transitory. If it were you would still be able to buy a car for $2700 like in the 60s and a nice 2300 sq ft suburban house would be about $30k like it was in the 60's. Prices tend to follow inflation then wages follow prices yet no one is demanding a return to the 60's wage rates.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on May 26, 2022, 10:07:18 AM
They are trying to pass additional stimulus to buy votes in November..
They are truly insane or trying to send us into a depression for some reason
Wages are relative to prices
What good is it to make 100k if a car cost 60k and homes are 400k?
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 26, 2022, 12:50:18 PM
Blame FDR for implementing policy to save the old and poor folk from starving to death during the 'Great Depression.' Scrooge should have won that election. Less people, more resources. Yay greed. :D
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Shuffler on May 26, 2022, 12:59:52 PM
I wonder how those folks who wanted 15 an hour to flip burgers are doing. I know some lost their jobs as they did not need as many people if they were paying 15. Those that still have jobs are now paying 5 bucks a gallon for gas. Wonder how happy they are now?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 26, 2022, 01:12:49 PM
I wonder how those folks who wanted 15 an hour to flip burgers are doing. I know some lost their jobs as they did not need as many people if they were paying 15.
You 'know' some? Those that are receiving something more akin to a living wage are not struggling as much. The restaurants refusing to pay a better wage are struggling and attempting to blame people for not wanting to work for less. Firing workers is reduced due to the great need for them (though there is a great amount of effort in the industry to mechanize burger flipping which will lose my business).
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: TyFoo on May 26, 2022, 04:48:27 PM
$15 an hour is only relative to where you live. Maybe thats high for one area, and not enough for another.
One of my favorite eateries closes at 4pm instead of 9pm now because they cannot hire enough people. On the door next to the sign that tells you that they are closing at 4pm is another that says "Hiring apply inside" with a note that pay starts at $18 an hour. With a state unemployment rate of 3.7% the market dictates what is needed to keep employees.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Shuffler on May 27, 2022, 08:51:01 AM
$15 an hour is only relative to where you live. Maybe thats high for one area, and not enough for another.
One of my favorite eateries closes at 4pm instead of 9pm now because they cannot hire enough people. On the door next to the sign that tells you that they are closing at 4pm is another that says "Hiring apply inside" with a note that pay starts at $18 an hour. With a state unemployment rate of 3.7% the market dictates what is needed to keep employees.
When socialist pay people to be failures, of course they do not want to work. Some places also have a lot of folks moving away.
My reference was to the failures thinking that flipping burgers is a job to raise a family with. It is for highschoolers to make some spending money.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 27, 2022, 09:05:10 AM
When socialist pay people to be failures, of course they do not want to work. Some places also have a lot of folks moving away.
My reference was to the failures thinking that flipping burgers is a job to raise a family with. It is for highschoolers to make some spending money.
Why do you hate farmers? And manufacturing jobs dwindled while the service industry became the main employer in the U.S. High school wasn't supposed to last a lifetime. :old:
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on May 27, 2022, 09:32:52 AM
Corporate greed sent real jobs overseas
Now hamburger flipping and making hotel beds are supposed to provide something other than a very poor existence for grown adults many with children
Add to that our public schools have failed to educate our high school students much past a 9th grade level and we are where we are...America going down the crapper with big gov trying to be its hero but just expediting the fall.
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 27, 2022, 09:41:15 AM
You forgot to back up Shuf's main point that it's all the fault of using taxpayer money to help people survive (or was that what you meant by 'expediting the fall?').
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eviscerate on May 27, 2022, 09:41:22 AM
All the olds with their PhDs in Economics. :rolleyes:
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on May 27, 2022, 09:48:29 AM
When socialist pay people to be failures, of course they do not want to work. Some places also have a lot of folks moving away.
My reference was to the failures thinking that flipping burgers is a job to raise a family with. It is for highschoolers to make some spending money.
My bad, I wasn't aware that we were casting aspersions. . . . .I forgot about the tender spot for so called "Socialist" tendencies.
I was only to referring to what I have personally witnessed from one end of the country to the other. in addition I have read a few articles over the past 4 -5 years that were specifically about Fast Food Franchises, most recently two Chic-Fil-A owners, one in Texas and the other "Of Course" in the "Democratic Socialist Republic of California".
The Franchise owner in Texas started paying living wages to his employees back in 1999, reducing employee turnover by 76%, increasing revenue, increased profits and giving him more time for himself and his family etc etc.
Similarly the guy in California met the owner from Texas in 2018 and implemented the same model. Ironically his revenue doubled, profits increased, turn over decreased, and again has more time for himself and family.
Its weird, because on the surface it appeared to be a couple of Free Americans being innovative, thinking outside the box of treating their business and people with 1920's sweat shop ideology, while improving their business, the lives of the people that work for them, as well as themselves. . . . Who knew it wasn't a Win Win situation but rather some clandestine Socialist agenda behind it?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on May 27, 2022, 03:36:56 PM
What were the liveable wages?
Sounds great but ones lifestyle determines if it's liveable to them
Many/most people today have liveable wages though they continue to live past that with credit...another bubble waiting to pop
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 27, 2022, 03:40:54 PM
Sounds great but ones lifestyle determines if it's liveable to them
Many/most people today have liveable wages though they continue to live past that with credit...another bubble waiting to pop
Eagler
You live in a 'bubble' if you don't know that a livable wage means enough money to pay for housing, bills, food and transportation (and possible doctor visits).
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Shuffler on May 27, 2022, 04:17:32 PM
Livable wages? Just as I said above.
This is not pointed at anyone here but... Too many people fail to plan, plan to fail. In the end if you didn't work to better yourself and you have nothing, that is your own fault. If you then expect everyone to feel sorry for you.... too bad. People like that are a burden and take up too much time. Some then choose to bring kids into the world when they can't even support themselves. Failure on so many levels. Then they expect us to support them. Wasted money.
I care about people.... but only the ones who really care about themselves. Those that fail to plan do not care about themselves, so why should we care.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 27, 2022, 04:32:59 PM
I care about people.... but only the ones who really care about themselves. Those that fail to plan do not care about themselves, so why should we care.
You care about certain people, I'm sure. Generally speaking (a viewpoint on society), I'm not witnessing much empathy on your part. WE should care because we should all be contributing members of society and we should recognize who really is and who is not taking unfair advantage of our system (hint - no it isn't those struggling to survive from paycheck to paycheck). A living wage should allow for a person to work a 40 hour work week and keep a roof over their head, the lights on, food in their belly, access to medical care and a reasonable method of transport to and from work. Period. It's not a difficult concept. Where capitalism has shortfalls socialism attempts to fill the gap. Been that way in the U.S. since FDR. And this nation can indeed afford such (when everyone pays their fair share in FIT). If all employers were fair to their employees then there would be less need for federal and state safety nets.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: MiloMorai on May 27, 2022, 06:15:53 PM
If all employers were fair to their employees then there would be less need for federal and state safety nets
There would also be more money growing the economy.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eviscerate on May 27, 2022, 07:05:03 PM
You live in a 'bubble' if you don't know that a livable wage means enough money to pay for housing, bills, food and transportation (and possible doctor visits).
Indeed. Because they are Old White Males who are totally free and clear of any adversity that they could have possibly experienced in life. They don't realize that life in the 70s and 80s is vastly different than what it is today.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: RotBaron on May 27, 2022, 07:51:53 PM
Indeed. Because they are Old White Males who are totally free and clear of any adversity that they could have possibly experienced in life. They don't realize that life in the 70s and 80s is vastly different than what it is today.
Bigot.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 27, 2022, 07:59:56 PM
Where capitalism has shortfalls socialism attempts to fill the gap.
From Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize winning economist, columnist for the New York Times, former professor of economics at MIT, professor emeritus at Princeton, Centennial Professor at London School of Economics, (MIT, Princeton, and LSE being three of the top schools of economics in the world), who says that he is a liberal and what would be called a "social democrat" in Europe:
"But who can now use the words of socialism with a straight face? As a member of the baby boomer generation, I can remember when the idea of revolution, of brave men pushing history forward, had a certain glamour. Now it is a sick joke: after all the purges and gulags, Russia was as backward and corrupt as ever; after all the Great Leaps and Cultural Revolutions, China decided that making money is the highest good. There are still radical leftists out there, who stubbornly claim that true socialism has not yet been tried; and there are still moderate leftists, who claim with more justification that one can reject Marxist-Leninism without necessarily becoming a disciple of Milton Friedman. But the truth is that the heart has gone out of the opposition to capitalism."
"[Speaking of countries climbing their way out of abject poverty.] And once again, capitalism could with considerable justification claim the credit. Socialists had long promised development; there was a time when the Third World looked to Stalin’s five-year plans as the very image of how a backward nation should push itself into the twentieth century. And even after the Soviet Union had lost its aura of progressiveness, many intellectuals believed that only by cutting themselves off from competition with more advanced economies could poor nations hope to break out of their trap. By the 1990s, however, there were role models showing that rapid development was possible after all—and it had been accomplished not through proud socialist isolation but precisely by becoming as integrated as possible with global capitalism."
-- Krugman, Paul. The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on May 28, 2022, 06:24:18 AM
Indeed. Because they are Old White Males who are totally free and clear of any adversity that they could have possibly experienced in life. They don't realize that life in the 70s and 80s is vastly different than what it is today.
Married at 19 in 1978 with a son ...stepped out of college into fatherhood unexpectedly :)
Still married at 63 to the same beautiful woman, two sons and several grandchildren.
Worked my arse off to get here and still experiencing the "adversity" that you think one becomes "free and clear" of at some magical age
Grow up
Ps can't help that I am Italian American which is considered white these days...nor that I am "old" to some
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Shuffler on May 28, 2022, 06:51:24 AM
If all employers were fair to their employees then there would be less need for federal and state safety nets
There would also be more money growing the economy.
Here in the US you have a choice of who you work for. You actually have a choice.
My post was about burger flipping jobs. They are for high schoolers to make extra money. Too much mooching off everyone else makes some think they deserve some kind of support. They made their own bed and should have to sleep in it. The government has no money. It operates off our money, the people who contribute in this country.
Too many are on handouts that just sit on their porch. Too many on handouts are having kids. We are even giving phones to deadbeats. It has just turned into another form of slavery. They will not go find a job because they are ok with what they are given. That needs to stop.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 28, 2022, 12:56:58 PM
Here in the US you have a choice of who you work for. You actually have a choice.
My post was about burger flipping jobs. They are for high schoolers to make extra money. Too much mooching off everyone else makes some think they deserve some kind of support. They made their own bed and should have to sleep in it. The government has no money. It operates off our money, the people who contribute in this country.
Too many are on handouts that just sit on their porch. Too many on handouts are having kids. We are even giving phones to deadbeats. It has just turned into another form of slavery. They will not go find a job because they are ok with what they are given. That needs to stop.
Not nearly as much choice as you might like to pretend. Perhaps you missed my mentioning that the manufacturing heyday in the U.S. has given way to the burgeoning service industry. Your 'choices' may well be one of several dozen McDonalds in town or their competitors. But if one can afford welding school while their families wait to eat or have a roof then they might be on the short list with a thousand or more others for the better paying welding job.
No, sorry, the land of 'plenty' became the land of plenty .... for some.
:old:
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: SIM on May 28, 2022, 03:47:45 PM
Quote
Not nearly as much choice as you might like to pretend. Perhaps you missed my mentioning that the manufacturing heyday in the U.S. has given way to the burgeoning service industry. Your 'choices' may well be one of several dozen McDonalds in town or their competitors. But if one can afford welding school while their families wait to eat or have a roof then they might be on the short list with a thousand or more others for the better paying welding job.
No, sorry, the land of 'plenty' became the land of plenty .... for some.
Right.......and all those people who can't find a good job are out in force looking for something that will offer more for them? Please then explain why so many large companies are struggling to find employees, I see it EVERY day. And oft times the person who applies for a job will never show up for an interview. I've even seen people come in and explicitly state that they will not take a job because they don't get up before 9am, when the job starts at 7am!
When someone sits on their butt and waits for opportunity, they will be passed by. That is their own damn fault. Not having a living wage job, in this day and age, is ones OWN fault. Not the fault of anyone else.
Government safety nets are worthless when the human element is involved.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 28, 2022, 04:08:06 PM
Is that the government paying healthy people not to work?
The system was initially setup as a social safety net...that net has become a permanent requirement in their daily lives which it was never intended for but the most disabled
Some, way too many, are happy stealing in whatever form as they have justified it in their pinheads
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Spikes on May 29, 2022, 06:48:02 AM
Right.......and all those people who can't find a good job are out in force looking for something that will offer more for them? Please then explain why so many large companies are struggling to find employees, I see it EVERY day. And oft times the person who applies for a job will never show up for an interview. I've even seen people come in and explicitly state that they will not take a job because they don't get up before 9am, when the job starts at 7am!
Have you applied for a job in the last 3-4 years? I have applied to 56 jobs and have received exactly 1 callback/HR screen. I have a Bachelor's degree in Cybersecurity Information Assurance & Digital Forensics and 6.5 years of related experience. It must be me though!
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: SIM on May 29, 2022, 12:06:04 PM
I don't know about you, but I can make a living without doing so in my chosen field.
So yeah, it probably is on YOU!
Either way, do you work at all? That is the "gist" of the conversation. My comment is directed at all the idiots out there that cry about not having a good paying job, yet they sit on their tulips waiting for a handout.
I have NEVER applied for any sort of government safety net. I will NOT do so until such time as I see that my family is going to possibly suffer. I damn sure won't wait till they are already suffering to look for solutions. Safety nets repeatedly encourage people to wait until its almost too late to do anything about their situation. I have no pity/empathy/sympathy/compassion for people such as that.
Maybe you can make it to 100 tries......
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 29, 2022, 12:08:09 PM
Try to calm down.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 29, 2022, 01:00:31 PM
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on May 29, 2022, 01:25:23 PM
China: This time's Lehman Brothers moment?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: MiloMorai on May 29, 2022, 06:49:01 PM
Here in the US you have a choice of who you work for. You actually have a choice.
My post was about burger flipping jobs. They are for high schoolers to make extra money. Too much mooching off everyone else makes some think they deserve some kind of support. They made their own bed and should have to sleep in it. The government has no money. It operates off our money, the people who contribute in this country.
Too many are on handouts that just sit on their porch. Too many on handouts are having kids. We are even giving phones to deadbeats. It has just turned into another form of slavery. They will not go find a job because they are ok with what they are given. That needs to stop.
This isn't 100 years ago when one got paid for pushing a broom. Today a machine has replaced those broom pushers.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on May 30, 2022, 06:20:36 AM
Not today
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Shuffler on May 31, 2022, 02:29:21 PM
I wonder how those folks who wanted 15 an hour to flip burgers are doing. I know some lost their jobs as they did not need as many people if they were paying 15. Those that still have jobs are now paying 5 bucks a gallon for gas. Wonder how happy they are now?
they didn't lose their jobs, well at least around here. they quit and got jobs somewhere else for more money. around here burger joints offering 17 to 20 bucks and can't find enough employees. even department stores have assistant managers that are not even 18 and pay sure as hell is not 15 an hour. the myth that nobody wants to work still around. employees now want benefits and paid vacations and not just get a job to survive.
I guess we are the exception.
semp
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Shuffler on May 31, 2022, 04:21:57 PM
they didn't lose their jobs, well at least around here. they quit and got jobs somewhere else for more money. around here burger joints offering 17 to 20 bucks and can't find enough employees. even department stores have assistant managers that are not even 18 and pay sure as hell is not 15 an hour. the myth that nobody wants to work still around. employees now want benefits and paid vacations and not just get a job to survive.
I guess we are the exception.
semp
That is because they can get free handouts. Stop that and get the deadbeats working or let them starve.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 31, 2022, 04:28:28 PM
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on May 31, 2022, 05:13:58 PM
Full employment is needed for a healthy economy..
Way too many have figured out the system and abuse it which takes resources from those truly disabled and needing real assistance
I don't see it getting anything but worse .. just look around
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on May 31, 2022, 05:40:03 PM
Full employment sounds great. As long as the working class is paid a living wage. Has there been either in your lifetime (or your father's - or his, etc.)?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: DmonSlyr on May 31, 2022, 08:49:21 PM
The issue is that "Service" jobs are normally small shops that cannot afford to pay a large wage. $15 an hour may be a lot for a really small shop. It all depends on how much cash the business is bringing in to pay those wages. Forcing "all" businesses to pay a certain way always benefits the bigger company over the smaller shops because the small business cannot afford to hire. If we encouraged an economy to become manufactures and builders as it's main industry, our society would be incredibly wealthy with far better careers that can afford health benefits and 401ks. Smaller businesses should hire teens and almost retired people. If 25-50 year olds are working in these positions than perhaps they should re-evalute their life rather than blaming it on their employer. Not only that, but I'm sure many of these people are living pretty well compared to the rest of the world. It's pretty easy to take what we have for granted here. The key is to always work toward success and you will find it someway. Probably not how you imagined though. There are a lot of pretty decent paying jobs out there right now you just have to have the mindset of wanting to better yourself. There has never been a greater opportunity to make it wealthy than now.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: guncrasher on May 31, 2022, 10:49:31 PM
That is because they can get free handouts. Stop that and get the deadbeats working or let them starve.
what makes you think people that move to other jobs to make more money are getting handouts. nobody wants to work at a burger joint because it's only 30 hours a week so they dont pay you benefits, compare that to a warehouse that pays more get overtime and you now get insurance and vacation. how is that a handout?
had a friend that wanted somebody to work for him checking trucks in and out. he was paying 850 a week. sounds like a reasonable job. except he wanted them working 12 hour shifts six days a week. that's like 350 bucks below minimum wage. told him good luck in finding somebody. he forced a couple of guys to work that shift and they quit. they were making more money working 8 hours a day 5 days a week. the extra 350 bucks is not gonna make him broke. but now he does that job himself. he's dumb and greedy.
semp
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: guncrasher on May 31, 2022, 10:56:12 PM
The issue is that "Service" jobs are normally small shops that cannot afford to pay a large wage. $15 an hour may be a lot for a really small shop. It all depends on how much cash the business is bringing in to pay those wages. Forcing "all" businesses to pay a certain way always benefits the bigger company over the smaller shops because the small business cannot afford to hire. If we encouraged an economy to become manufactures and builders as it's main industry, our society would be incredibly wealthy with far better careers that can afford health benefits and 401ks. Smaller businesses should hire teens and almost retired people. If 25-50 year olds are working in these positions than perhaps they should re-evalute their life rather than blaming it on their employer. Not only that, but I'm sure many of these people are living pretty well compared to the rest of the world. It's pretty easy to take what we have for granted here. The key is to always work toward success and you will find it someway. Probably not how you imagined though. There are a lot of pretty decent paying jobs out there right now you just have to have the mindset of wanting to better yourself. There has never been a greater opportunity to make it wealthy than now.
why dont you help some of those small shops by getting a job there. oh that's right, you wont. even though it will help the economy.
once I took a big paycut 15 years ago. was making 40% of what I was making before, but I knew if I got hired instead of being a temp I would make a lot more money than my old job. it worked, up until I got hurt and couldnt work anymore, but that's a different story. only reason I took that job is my wife was making enough money for us to live on. not anybody has that opportunity to go to his wife and tell her, we wont have enough to eat for the next 5 months.
semp
edit: and by the way the job I left was a company with about 20 employees we made at least 50k a year. and I doubled my income in less than a year in the new company. then again my wife made enough money for us to live on.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on June 01, 2022, 01:11:10 AM
Has Putin started WWIII yet?
The Ukrainian narrative finished with you lot?
You people :rofl
Has monkey pox hysteria finished yet?
What hysteria will there be in July :)
The economy, Lockheed Martin are having a bumper years :rofl
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 01, 2022, 01:20:34 AM
Here are US wages over time, adjusted by official inflation:
Official inflation understates real inflation. The government is incentivized to report low official inflation because various government payments are tied to inflation. So they have methods (hedonics, for example) to facilitate understatement.
Here is inflation using the 1980's measurement method (from shadowstats.com):
If you adjust the wage chart by real inflation, you see real (inflation-adjusted) wages substantially decreasing over time. They are not flat.
We all know this (if we are old enough) because we remember what a single-earner middle-class household was like in the 1960's: single earner, stay-at-home mom, a few kids, a dog, a house, a car or two, some savings for retirement, and a decent middle-class lifestyle for the family.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Max on June 01, 2022, 06:59:56 AM
We all know this (if we are old enough) because we remember what a single-earner middle-class household was like in the 1960's: single earner, stay-at-home mom, a few kids, a dog, a house, a car or two, some savings for retirement, and a decent middle-class lifestyle for the family.
what makes you think people that move to other jobs to make more money are getting handouts. nobody wants to work at a burger joint because it's only 30 hours a week so they dont pay you benefits, compare that to a warehouse that pays more get overtime and you now get insurance and vacation. how is that a handout?
had a friend that wanted somebody to work for him checking trucks in and out. he was paying 850 a week. sounds like a reasonable job. except he wanted them working 12 hour shifts six days a week. that's like 350 bucks below minimum wage. told him good luck in finding somebody. he forced a couple of guys to work that shift and they quit. they were making more money working 8 hours a day 5 days a week. the extra 350 bucks is not gonna make him broke. but now he does that job himself. he's dumb and greedy.
semp
What makes you think they are moving to better jobs? We are talking about people who plan to fail and have kids anyway, and work in a McDonalds. They want more money to raise a family. Flipping burgers is not that job, it is for high school kids to make an extra buck.
If they could get a better job, they would have already and not begged for more money flipping burgers.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Spikes on June 01, 2022, 09:43:28 AM
Yes, don't know where else I would've gotten my 6.5 years of related experience.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on June 01, 2022, 12:00:13 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/xsZ1cao.png)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 01, 2022, 12:18:07 PM
Guess some don't understand that raising the minimum wage raises prices on everything for everyone so there isn't any real getting ahead...cost is just added to the price...
I guess if I had stayed a dishwasher at steak and ale or a busboy at red lobster both high school summer jobs I should expect those jobs to support a family?
Nope - they shouldn't be nor expected to be
It's called education, hard work and a good work ethic...not a guaranteed existence..
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on June 01, 2022, 12:44:45 PM
Guess some people don't understand that not raising the minimum wage never kept prices from rising. Guess some people don't understand that more and more adults (some married-some with children - some both) work as dishwashers at Steak and Ale or busboys at Red Lobster and they aren't high school summer jobs (and if they are working there 40 hrs a week they should be able to survive on that). Guess some people don't know that there aren't large numbers of manufacturing jobs like there once were. It's called civility, compassion and morality.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 01, 2022, 12:54:07 PM
I'm ambivalent on minimum wage. However, if the nation decides to have one, it makes logical sense it should track inflation and increases in worker productivity.
I don't have the research handy, but I believe I've seen that if minimum wage had tracked productivity and inflation since late 60's then the number should more realistically be around $24/hr.
You could convince me to dump it, but you could also convince me to dump every BS tax deduction scheme out there for corporations, and subsidies for farmer to not plant, and including the tens of billions we give the petroleum industry to be so kind as to explore for oil....because I guess the tens of billions in profits they make each year are insufficient motivation for them to explore with their own retained earnings.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on June 01, 2022, 12:56:07 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/INUQTig.png)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Spikes on June 01, 2022, 01:02:19 PM
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 01, 2022, 03:31:47 PM
Minimum-wage laws are generally harmful to the people intended to be helped with minimum-wage laws. This as judged by economists who studied data on the issue (not just pontification).
The reason is that, while wages go up for the entry-level folks still employed, it results in some folks losing their jobs. So, good for some, bad for others, but ends up being a negative as averaged over all workers directly affected.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 01, 2022, 03:49:20 PM
In Washington State, average teacher salary is $65k. This is not including pension after retirement or benefits while employed. That is for 9 months, and more vacation days than most US workers get. For 12 months, that is an annualized rate of $87k/year, plus pension and benefits.
Salaries for school administrators are higher.
Spending per pupil per year in the US went from $2300 in 1980 (which is $7100 in 2019 dollars) to $15,600 in 2019. That is a 120% increase in real terms (i.e., inflation adjusted).
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on June 01, 2022, 04:12:03 PM
Minimum-wage laws are generally harmful to the people intended to be helped with minimum-wage laws. This as judged by economists who studied data on the issue (not just pontification).
The reason is that, while wages go up for the entry-level folks still employed, it results in some folks losing their jobs. So, good for some, bad for others, but ends up being a negative as averaged over all workers directly affected.
Guess some people don't understand that not raising the minimum wage never kept prices from rising. Guess some people don't understand that more and more adults (some married-some with children - some both) work as dishwashers at Steak and Ale or busboys at Red Lobster and they aren't high school summer jobs (and if they are working there 40 hrs a week they should be able to survive on that). Guess some people don't know that there aren't large numbers of manufacturing jobs like there once were. It's called civility, compassion and morality.
You aren't considering that person had to agree to work there for that wage. That person applied for and accepted the position. Now, where that person is in life and their decisions they have made to get there is a different story.
You also aren't considering how much extra in employer taxes that business has to pay as well. If they then have to fire someone because they can't afford the forced increased expense of $2 an hour + extra payroll taxes. It hurts the business as now less people are working to help customers or build the business. Less people now have the opportunity to work. People out of prison and younger kids with no experience now have a harder chances of getting a job. I also think that it's very challenging for companies to realize that it is their job to increase wages inorder to find the best employees in the market. That is really the key to having a successful business. In the end, you will always have businesses trying to get the best value for their buck, but you will also have HR people who put people in earning blocks and it remains comparable with the "industry" no matter how good or bad the company is doing. That limits the companies potential to find the best talent for their business because they don't have a competitive advantage for hiring.
The 'society' simply cannot paint all business with a broad brush when it comes to payroll due to every single business operating a different way. I'll say it again and say it until the dogs come home. The #1 thing that increases prices are high taxes. Taxes increase costs for every single vendor you work with. This means you have to physically increase prices to maintain your profit margin. This means all of their consumers pay more. It never fails. If they cut employer payroll taxes just a bit, they would be able to make up for the forced increase in minimum wage. But you see, they never want to incentivize and no one really wins.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on June 01, 2022, 04:34:20 PM
You aren't considering that person had to agree to work there for that wage. That person applied for and accepted the position. Now, where that person is in life and their decisions they have made to get there is a different story.
You also aren't considering how much extra in employer taxes that business has to pay as well. If they then have to fire someone because they can't afford the forced increased expense of $2 an hour + extra payroll taxes. It hurts the business as now less people are working to help customers or build the business. Less people now have the opportunity to work. People out of prison and younger kids with no experience now have a harder chances of getting a job. I also think that it's very challenging for companies to realize that it is their job to increase wages inorder to find the best employees in the market. That is really the key to having a successful business. In the end, you will always have businesses trying to get the best value for their buck, but you will also have HR people who put people in earning blocks and it remains comparable with the "industry" no matter how good or bad the company is doing. That limits the companies potential to find the best talent for their business because they don't have a competitive advantage for hiring.
The 'society' simply cannot paint all business with a broad brush when it comes to payroll due to every single business operating a different way. I'll say it again and say it until the dogs come home. The #1 thing that increases prices are high taxes. Taxes increase costs for every single vendor you work with. This means you have to physically increase prices to maintain your profit margin. This means all of their consumers pay more. It never fails. If they cut employer payroll taxes just a bit, they would be able to make up for the forced increase in minimum wage. But you see, they never want to incentivize and no one really wins.
You're being rather presumptuous concerning my consideration. You seem to also presume that everyone has a shot at a better job (from, apparently, a long list of jobs of various wages and/or benefits), either when applying or later. Such is not so. When it comes down to it, employers should pay what the labor is worth. If the labor becomes worthless, so does the product. That employer is cutting their own throat.
And lastly, a consumer based economy requires consumers that can afford to buy products. You insinuated such above. Especially products that are necessities. Where do these consumers come from, sir?
What makes you think they are moving to better jobs? We are talking about people who plan to fail and have kids anyway, and work in a McDonalds. They want more money to raise a family. Flipping burgers is not that job, it is for high school kids to make an extra buck.
If they could get a better job, they would have already and not begged for more money flipping burgers.
why do you think McDonald's cant find enough people? or burger king as a matter of fact. nobody wants to work there anymore. around here employees are in short supply and they dont have to beg for more money. employers beg employees to come work for them. department stores have employees that look so young they probably dont have a driver's license. ever talked to one of them. they're happy, very helpful. I have spoken to some of them, they're glad they dont have to work at 3.35 an hour like I did when I was in highschool. they're saving for college or get a car, they have dreams and they all say I wont be here forever.
they're parents are making more money, housing is in short supply due to how many people have moved here. there's companies offering 1k or 1.5 sign in bonus payed after 2 months. employees are not worried anymore in the sense I cant afford to quit. employers are worried that they cant afford to lose employees so do what they can to keep them.
employees know they can just quit and get a new job a couple of days later if they arent treated right. that what I see in several local groups I belong to. people networking or talking about companies that wont treat employees right. they are trying to do their jobs right, but they arent afraid to quit anymore.
my mother never worked higher than minimum wage, after highschool I never worked minimum wage. my kids after high school have never worked minimum wage. on the other hand I have never looked down on anybody working minimum wage. you got a job, you work hard, you cool with me.
next time before you say people like to live on hand outs, please research how much money they get on handouts. around here you are lucky if you get 50 bucks a month, unless you have children and even then you wont get much. you can get food stamps but that's about it. section 8 housing hasnt been opened in like 6 years. will take you probably 10 years to get into it. hardly you can call that living on handouts.
semp
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: nopoop on June 01, 2022, 10:51:40 PM
2019 article.
New American way of life, get on board.
For a guy and his girlfriend with two kids, all you have to do is follow these proven steps. 1. dont marry her !!!! 2. always use your moms address to get your mail. 3. The guy buys a house. 4. the guy rents out the house to his girlfriend and two kids. 5. Section 8 will pay 900 a month for a 3 bedroom home. 6. girlfriend signs up for obama care so the guy doesnt have to pay for family insurance. 7. girl gets to go to college for free being a single mother. 8. girl gets a free cell phone 9. guy moves into the house and uses his moms address for mail 10. giirl and the guy file separately on their tax forms so both claim head of household and get 1800 a piece credit 11. girlfriend claims disability for having a bad back or ?? And gets 1400 a month from SSI This plan is totally legal and is being executed by a whole lot of people.
A married couple with a stay at home mom gets 0 dollars. An unmarried couple with a stay at home mom nets 16200 disability 10800 in free housing 6000 free obama care 4800 free utilities 6000 pell grant money to spend plus 12000 a year in college tuition plus 8800 tax benifit
I have a cousin inlaw that played this game, didn't work for 20 years, three kids plus alimony
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 01, 2022, 11:04:24 PM
"The debate about the effect increases in the minimum wage have on employment is ongoing. Some studies find either no or only a small effect (here and here, for example), while others find significant effects (here and here). A study recently published in the American Economic Review provides new evidence that increases in the minimum wage reduce employment in the long run."
For a guy and his girlfriend with two kids, all you have to do is follow these proven steps. 1. dont marry her !!!! 2. always use your moms address to get your mail. 3. The guy buys a house. 4. the guy rents out the house to his girlfriend and two kids. 5. Section 8 will pay 900 a month for a 3 bedroom home. 6. girlfriend signs up for obama care so the guy doesnt have to pay for family insurance. 7. girl gets to go to college for free being a single mother. 8. girl gets a free cell phone 9. guy moves into the house and uses his moms address for mail 10. giirl and the guy file separately on their tax forms so both claim head of household and get 1800 a piece credit 11. girlfriend claims disability for having a bad back or ?? And gets 1400 a month from SSI This plan is totally legal and is being executed by a whole lot of people.
A married couple with a stay at home mom gets 0 dollars. An unmarried couple with a stay at home mom nets 16200 disability 10800 in free housing 6000 free obama care 4800 free utilities 6000 pell grant money to spend plus 12000 a year in college tuition plus 8800 tax benifit
I have a cousin inlaw that played this game, didn't work for 20 years, three kids plus alimony
last time section 8 was open was in 2019 for 3 weeks. before then it was 2015. that's in the county i live in, in california. now the waiting list is several years and that if, you make it to the waiting list. then somebody has to drop off the list to actually get a voucher.
now meanwhile the county is pretty aggressive at getting child support. la county is even worst. they will come after you and trust me at 10% interest rate that child support gets pretty expensive. I know I went thru it. my first wife's family worked for the child support division. if she so much as bought a chewing gum for my kids, I paid for it.
so your girlfriend wont report you so she can get section 8 is pretty much slim to none. she will come after your house, that's what I would do. 1/2 section 8 housing is used up by senior citizens, they have preference. as for gf getting disability for having a bad back, guess you never applied for ssi. tough to get, you can be in a wheelchair but if you dont see a doctor, it's automatic denial.
that girlfriend you posted about would be better off, just getting child support, now that I would believe. hell she owns 1/2 your house, why go thru the trouble of getting caught and going to jail, when she can just sue you for child support and take your house and sell it. now that is a more believable story.
semp
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 02, 2022, 03:45:03 AM
"The debate about the effect increases in the minimum wage have on employment is ongoing. Some studies find either no or only a small effect (here and here, for example), while others find significant effects (here and here). A study recently published in the American Economic Review provides new evidence that increases in the minimum wage reduce employment in the long run."
then why not everyone take a pay cut, it will reduce unemployment and lower the cost of living. how much do you suggest 10, 20 percent less income? would you take that pay cut?
semp
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 02, 2022, 06:33:37 AM
I think we all know someone who has worked the system..
Person in my case has mental issues and she couldn't hold a job for more than 6 months without quitting or getting herself fired.
Her daughter is headed down the same path
As this is a rinse and repeat procedure after decades they have it figured out.
Have to believe the majority of today's issues start in the ole noggin that is as sick as it has ever been
Mental health should start in elementary school with periods of meditation and calming physical activities such as yoga and tai chi IMO
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Shuffler on June 02, 2022, 08:57:53 AM
why do you think McDonald's cant find enough people? or burger king as a matter of fact. nobody wants to work there anymore. around here employees are in short supply and they dont have to beg for more money. employers beg employees to come work for them. department stores have employees that look so young they probably dont have a driver's license. ever talked to one of them. they're happy, very helpful. I have spoken to some of them, they're glad they dont have to work at 3.35 an hour like I did when I was in highschool. they're saving for college or get a car, they have dreams and they all say I wont be here forever.
they're parents are making more money, housing is in short supply due to how many people have moved here. there's companies offering 1k or 1.5 sign in bonus payed after 2 months. employees are not worried anymore in the sense I cant afford to quit. employers are worried that they cant afford to lose employees so do what they can to keep them.
employees know they can just quit and get a new job a couple of days later if they arent treated right. that what I see in several local groups I belong to. people networking or talking about companies that wont treat employees right. they are trying to do their jobs right, but they arent afraid to quit anymore.
my mother never worked higher than minimum wage, after highschool I never worked minimum wage. my kids after high school have never worked minimum wage. on the other hand I have never looked down on anybody working minimum wage. you got a job, you work hard, you cool with me.
next time before you say people like to live on hand outs, please research how much money they get on handouts. around here you are lucky if you get 50 bucks a month, unless you have children and even then you wont get much. you can get food stamps but that's about it. section 8 housing hasnt been opened in like 6 years. will take you probably 10 years to get into it. hardly you can call that living on handouts.
semp
Semp you are an ok guy but you live in a bubble.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 02, 2022, 01:36:30 PM
then why not everyone take a pay cut, it will reduce unemployment and lower the cost of living. how much do you suggest 10, 20 percent less income? would you take that pay cut?
semp
Changing things in any direction -- up or down -- from what a free market sets is what causes problems.
Mandating that an employee make at least $x or at most $y are both bad economically.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: guncrasher on June 02, 2022, 02:17:39 PM
no actually live in real world. my wife tried for years to get ssi, she kept getting declined. I have tried too, it's gonna take years to get it. and I have documented history going back 10 years. I've already been declined. it's not just show up and get approved.
I've already checked on these handouts you guys keep talking about. don't seem to find the office. my social worker always laughs when I ask about these special handouts that will provide enough to live on.
are there people who take advantage? absolutely, but those are the exception and they keep getting caught and going to jail.
actually know a girl 40s never had a job and applied for unemployment in 2020. she got 3 months in jail plus she needs to pay everything back.
semp
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: morfiend on June 03, 2022, 06:31:20 AM
no actually live in real world. my wife tried for years to get ssi, she kept getting declined. I have tried too, it's gonna take years to get it. and I have documented history going back 10 years. I've already been declined. it's not just show up and get approved.
I've already checked on these handouts you guys keep talking about. don't seem to find the office. my social worker always laughs when I ask about these special handouts that will provide enough to live on.
are there people who take advantage? absolutely, but those are the exception and they keep getting caught and going to jail.
actually know a girl 40s never had a job and applied for unemployment in 2020. she got 3 months in jail plus she needs to pay everything back.
semp
Ya but……. As they used to say the grass is always greener on the other side!
When I was a kid if I had a dollar I ruled the world, I got a 2 dollar a week allowance which was about 4 or 5 times what most my friends got but I also worked which I started to do at 9 years old and it was for min wages of a buck an hour. During the school year I only worked 24 to 30 hours per week but during summer break I had to put in the 40 hours as it was a family run business and that didn’t include household chores which were expected.
Yesterday I saw a help wanted sign, starting wage was 22 bucks per hour and up to 34 bucks depending on experience and this was for a labourers position with a construction company. Why??? Because that type work is in demand but people waste their money going to school to study the difference between the European swallow and African swallow and just how many coconuts they can carry. I get it though it’s much more fun to,party at school than to actually do something constructive,just like it’s easier to scream and shout about takers than to do anything about it.
<S>
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 03, 2022, 07:20:09 AM
The exercise bike factory black mirror episode keeps coming to mind...
I think if it had a free day care and McDonald's it would work!
All those green save the earth ppl can provide us electricity while burning off their big macs and keeping their bmi in spec :)
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 03, 2022, 11:30:45 AM
Good numbers today and the market drops.. Why? Because they know such news will continue rate hikes and qt
What a bunch of crooks
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 03, 2022, 01:34:22 PM
Woe be to anyone over 40 yo investing in the market to reach retirement or in retirement with any percentage invested in stocks as part of their income that doesn't consider this chart VERY carefully.
This is not going to be a standard business cycle downturn that you ride out and be fine. This is possibly going to be the most cataclysmic economic event of our nations history. People will have their lives destroyed over this. Maybe even people not even invested. Few are going to avoid being touched by this.
I used to feel slightly embarrassed suggesting the SP could drop as low as 2000. I may still have been too optimistic. Just easing down to trend would be more like 1800-1400 range. But as you see from this chart, historically massive drops overshoot trend before floating back up. So how low can we ultimately go? SP 1000? And some of these cycles take a decade or more to even get back to trend.
Look at these extreme peaks and project over to see how long it took to get back to breakeven from the peak.
Make you own call and decide how best to position yourself, just please don't sleep walk into these propeller blades.
P.S. Bonds are not much better. Real-estate is a bad play too IMHO. Gold? Meh. I started going that way and got back out last Dec. Just didn't have any conviction. You are guaranteed a loss of about 8% in cash, but that might look unimaginably preferable by the time this thing has run it's course.
I'm short the market so I make money when it drops, but that is not something I would recommend to anyone else as it is very high risk.
This is the worst environments I have even ever studied exactly because there are no counter investments to hide in.
You can maybe profit big if you can swallow high risk. Maybe losing big. You can find relative safety at the guaranteed (but limited) cost of about 8% loss. You can risk much higher losses with little chance of gain through various other risk assets. Annuities? Meh. I'd rather take the hit on cash and have my liquidity to react to some opportunity. PM? Meh. I just have no conviction there. Bitcoin? Digital tulips.
Don't get mesmerized by the daily fluctuations or worse the sucker rallies. Understand the macro trend and where this thing is being ultimately pulled to. Center of gravity. This won't unwind in a day or weeks or months. This will probably be on-going over the next year.
Ooooff. I miss the late eighties-2000. :(
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 03, 2022, 02:24:16 PM
They will drown out the less than the super rich with record inflation before they let the country drop into a serious recession/depression IMO..
They are hoping now just to get rates up and money pulled out with qt so they can then rinse and repeat the next bubble cycle with decreases in rates and the restart of qe...free money!
The question is will they be able to do that to any meaningful level before they have to reverse course prematurely..
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on June 03, 2022, 03:00:06 PM
no actually live in real world. my wife tried for years to get ssi, she kept getting declined. I have tried too, it's gonna take years to get it. and I have documented history going back 10 years. I've already been declined. it's not just show up and get approved.
I've already checked on these handouts you guys keep talking about. don't seem to find the office. my social worker always laughs when I ask about these special handouts that will provide enough to live on.
are there people who take advantage? absolutely, but those are the exception and they keep getting caught and going to jail.
actually know a girl 40s never had a job and applied for unemployment in 2020. she got 3 months in jail plus she needs to pay everything back.
semp
(https://i.imgur.com/YC0JshR.png)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 03, 2022, 03:08:06 PM
The poor are not the problem IMO...printing 40$ billion dollars and sending it to what will probably turn out to be a lost cause while stating social security will go insolvent in less than 15 years is a much larger issue...
Then again we are back to the lower end of society as changes to SS will affect the poor the most..
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on June 03, 2022, 03:15:19 PM
The poor are not the problem IMO...printing 40$ billion dollars and sending it to what will probably turn out to be a lost cause while stating social security will go insolvent in less than 15 years is a much larger issue...
Then again we are back to the lower end of society as changes to SS will affect the poor the most..
Eagler
The raiding of SSI funds threatens its solvency. It stood well on its own without such and still can if the political war waged against it would abate.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 03, 2022, 04:06:29 PM
stating social security will go insolvent in less than 15 years is a much larger issue...
There will be no problem with SS. It will go insolvent IF we don't fix all the things we've know need to be fixed and just haven't. Also, worse case it wouldn't end, it just means it couldn't maintain current levels of benefits. But I guarantee you that will get fixed without a doubt. That is too large a voting block to screw over by anyone who ever wants to see re-election.
First, stop stealing from the fund. Second, pay back everything taken from the fund. Third some reasonable level of means testing would be sane. Paris Hilton probably is not depending on her SS check to buy her Gucci purses. Poor thing.
Also by 2035 it might not be a bad idea to bump the FRA a little bit more for younger folks. People are living longer.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: guncrasher on June 03, 2022, 11:16:25 PM
Ya but……. As they used to say the grass is always greener on the other side!
When I was a kid if I had a dollar I ruled the world, I got a 2 dollar a week allowance which was about 4 or 5 times what most my friends got but I also worked which I started to do at 9 years old and it was for min wages of a buck an hour. During the school year I only worked 24 to 30 hours per week but during summer break I had to put in the 40 hours as it was a family run business and that didn’t include household chores which were expected.
Yesterday I saw a help wanted sign, starting wage was 22 bucks per hour and up to 34 bucks depending on experience and this was for a labourers position with a construction company. Why??? Because that type work is in demand but people waste their money going to school to study the difference between the European swallow and African swallow and just how many coconuts they can carry. I get it though it’s much more fun to,party at school than to actually do something constructive,just like it’s easier to scream and shout about takers than to do anything about it.
<S>
I have worked in insurance companies, construction and at a steel mill. you know how easy those jobs were? I have a high school education and some college. to me there wasnt that much different than when I used to make pizza at shakeys when I was in high school. there were not harder, to me they were just as easy and those companies paid more than shakey's.
but companies expected somebody to have a college degree, it didnt matter what degree, you could have a degree on watching paint dry and you would get a better job.
the steel company now requires new hires to have a college degree. all you do is sit there and watch a machine do it's job then signal somebody or perhaps move some equipment to the next slab, roll, whatever. a degree in watching paint dry would actually come in handy as it was boring.
but that degree in watching paint dry will come in handy when you have work experience and you come out ahead of a kid with a high school education that's probably smarter than you because that's how companies see it.
I have seen people with college education selling windows that they measure but didnt know how to actually measure. but they had a college degree and that's what one of the companies required for sales. hope they have a better job now as they sucked when they measured windows.
but it's companies pushing that. one of my old coworkers got a job operating cranes he was getting paid more than what we did because he had a degree in hotel management. while not knocking down people who actually like to think, he was dumber than hell. but that's what the company wanted. he lived in the desert, he liked to raise chickens and bought a shed to use as a chicken coop, he never understood why his chickens died of heat exhaustion in 1 day. he said it was only 80 degrees outside. a metal roof with no windows on a chicken coop. what could go wrong.
that's what companies now a day want.
semp
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 04, 2022, 12:05:44 PM
It's amazing how people get fooled again and again. A large part of it is these crashes are usually space far enough apart that the majority of active investors were kids during the last one and weren't around to learn the lessons. Most people never bother to study previous cycles in history so they are doomed to make all the same mistakes all over again. A large percentage of investors today were in grade school during the GFC and watching Barney and Friends and playing Nintendo during the tech crash.
And smart-money looks at them and just licks their chops.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 04, 2022, 01:00:47 PM
Sadly I think he has it correct here:
https://youtu.be/nrrVju_rvRo
Whatever hurts the richest the least is how it will go
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: morfiend on June 04, 2022, 01:19:44 PM
I have worked in insurance companies, construction and at a steel mill. you know how easy those jobs were? I have a high school education and some college. to me there wasnt that much different than when I used to make pizza at shakeys when I was in high school. there were not harder, to me they were just as easy and those companies paid more than shakey's.
but companies expected somebody to have a college degree, it didnt matter what degree, you could have a degree on watching paint dry and you would get a better job.
the steel company now requires new hires to have a college degree. all you do is sit there and watch a machine do it's job then signal somebody or perhaps move some equipment to the next slab, roll, whatever. a degree in watching paint dry would actually come in handy as it was boring.
but that degree in watching paint dry will come in handy when you have work experience and you come out ahead of a kid with a high school education that's probably smarter than you because that's how companies see it.
I have seen people with college education selling windows that they measure but didnt know how to actually measure. but they had a college degree and that's what one of the companies required for sales. hope they have a better job now as they sucked when they measured windows.
but it's companies pushing that. one of my old coworkers got a job operating cranes he was getting paid more than what we did because he had a degree in hotel management. while not knocking down people who actually like to think, he was dumber than hell. but that's what the company wanted. he lived in the desert, he liked to raise chickens and bought a shed to use as a chicken coop, he never understood why his chickens died of heat exhaustion in 1 day. he said it was only 80 degrees outside. a metal roof with no windows on a chicken coop. what could go wrong.
that's what companies now a day want.
semp
I case you missed it I wasn’t disagreeing with you when I quoted your post.
I never went to collage,I could have but chose to go to work after high school. I was lucky enough to get a relatively high paying job at an auto factory so while my friends were going in debt I was making coin. By the time they were done school I was way ahead and had no dept.
I managed to buy a modest home and paid it off in 13 years,not the 25 or 30 the bank would have wanted.To this day I carry no debt and continue to pay a monthly mortgage but I pay myself not the bank,been doing this since 98. I drive a 15 yo car,,not because I have to but because it still works and it’s cheaper to fix it than buy a newer one. I’m also not a consumer,rarely buy stuff and when I do I research the heck out of it and often takes months to make the decision.
When I left the auto plant I started my own business,I found the only way to make what I was worth was to work for myself sure the boss was an a hole and did by any excuses for not showing up but he let me play golf and go fishing whenever I wanted to…..
<S>
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 04, 2022, 01:57:07 PM
Hard to weigh what he says because he doesn't pin any levels or time-frames.
The fed may stop hikes sooner than they say now. A lot of inflation with correct itself as stimulus money burns off and stock, bond, real estate, crypto crash destroys enough demand to cool the economy. I don't think the Fed merely stopping rate hikes is enough to prevent the current collapse. I think it takes active printing to suspend the market above historical trends. The end of rate hikes would make bonds much more attractive so at least there would be some safe haven it dip a toe in. All this, if history is any guide, will surely result in some level of recession as well which will also lower inflation.
I believe over the next 12-24 months (failing a complete Fed reversal) the stock market will collapse down to something around SP 2500-1500 range. From there I expect a good bull market for the next decade. After it burns down to below historical trend, it has room to grow at a good healthy, sustainable rate ~10-12% a year. I don't know if that next decade long bull market is what he is talking about in the "massive rally". I look forward to that. I love healthy bull markets that are supported my natural growth instead of zero interest crack. That will start inflation again, but some inflation is natural to our system, lets just keep it ~2-4%. ;)
Up to that I think he and I have no argument.
Then I think he says it is at the end of the NEXT market cycle that we have the super crash. Well, hell. A full market cycle can last 20 years. So if he is talking about a super crash then, that might be up to 30 years away. I probably won't care by then. ;)
And leave the country for where? I have been sufficiently convinced by Peter Zeihan's work that due to demographics and changes to the security landscape, as messed up as the US is, the rest of the world is going to be far far worse.
For instance, when the crash is over and I go Risk-On again, my investments will NOT be including international or emerging market exposure like I used to have. I think over the next 50 years the rest of the world is going to be WAY worse off than the US.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 05, 2022, 12:30:49 AM
Whatever hurts the richest the least is how it will go
Eagler
I think it will go like that, too; and agree with CptTrips.
My gut feel is a crash (in stocks, bonds, and real estate) started in January, 2022; with bottom early to mid 2023; followed by huge inflationary boom turning into hyper-ish inflation.
I.e., this sequence of events: Fed is currently raising rates (subtracting money), which crashes the Everything Bubble, followed by the Fed drastically lowering rates (and drastically printing money), which inflates bubbles and causes huge inflation.
I've been way wrong on my thoughts of timing things in the past, though, so who knows?
Despite how horrible it could get, I'm not thinking it will be better anywhere else. Maybe Luxembourg, Lichtenstein, or Switzerland? I don't know.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: guncrasher on June 05, 2022, 04:27:23 AM
I case you missed it I wasn’t disagreeing with you when I quoted your post.
I never went to collage,I could have but chose to go to work after high school. I was lucky enough to get a relatively high paying job at an auto factory so while my friends were going in debt I was making coin. By the time they were done school I was way ahead and had no dept.
I managed to buy a modest home and paid it off in 13 years,not the 25 or 30 the bank would have wanted.To this day I carry no debt and continue to pay a monthly mortgage but I pay myself not the bank,been doing this since 98. I drive a 15 yo car,,not because I have to but because it still works and it’s cheaper to fix it than buy a newer one. I’m also not a consumer,rarely buy stuff and when I do I research the heck out of it and often takes months to make the decision.
When I left the auto plant I started my own business,I found the only way to make what I was worth was to work for myself sure the boss was an a hole and did by any excuses for not showing up but he let me play golf and go fishing whenever I wanted to…..
<S>
no I was just quoting the part about college degrees. back in 94 I was trying to hire people and the company wanted colleges degrees, it could be a degree in watching paint dry, but it was a college degree. anybody over 30 was not to be hired, company didnt say it but we all understood. kids out of college thinking they could save the world and yet didnt know to how to use a staple remover.
sorry, I am just angry and mad and bitter. I have crane certification, welding certificate or whatever you call it. I can do plumbing, electricity, install windows, doors, I could basically build a house, as long as I dont touch the main fuse box, that scares the crap out of me. not including that i was an accountant at the insurance company, but cant sit or stand up for long to do that job. and yet i have to fight for ssi. it takes me a long time to be able to get out of bed.
I cant pick up a 100 dollar bill off the floor. and cant find anybody to tell me how to get that free stuff most of you blab about.
semp
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 05, 2022, 06:20:01 AM
Though he doesn't put a timetable on his predictions I think the 2nd crash is within 5 years probably 3.
Going with hyperinflation seems the way it will fall given that's the most taxes for the government while hurting the rich the least..
Like this guys pov also
https://youtu.be/3ExGrFGx7tY
Stay safe
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: morfiend on June 05, 2022, 01:04:01 PM
no I was just quoting the part about college degrees. back in 94 I was trying to hire people and the company wanted colleges degrees, it could be a degree in watching paint dry, but it was a college degree. anybody over 30 was not to be hired, company didnt say it but we all understood. kids out of college thinking they could save the world and yet didnt know to how to use a staple remover.
sorry, I am just angry and mad and bitter. I have crane certification, welding certificate or whatever you call it. I can do plumbing, electricity, install windows, doors, I could basically build a house, as long as I dont touch the main fuse box, that scares the crap out of me. not including that i was an accountant at the insurance company, but cant sit or stand up for long to do that job. and yet i have to fight for ssi. it takes me a long time to be able to get out of bed.
I cant pick up a 100 dollar bill off the floor. and cant find anybody to tell me how to get that free stuff most of you blab about.
semp
Sorry to hear that semp,I get you being mad and like you said it sounds easy to get those handouts until you actually need them.
Do people take advantage,sure they do but that doesn’t mean everyone does and unfortunately a few spoil it for the rest. Personally I think if you really need the help it should be available but others would rather it be dog eat dog,until they actually have to eat dog.
Why should I go to work everyday when the guy across the street doesn’t,get disability but can renovate his house,put a roof on it and still claims he can’t work…. My answer is that’s on him not my problem. If they took it away from him would it change or effect me,nope. Although he might kick my door in and steal what little I have and I’d rather not have to deal with that. There will always be people who work the system,that said I’d rather have a system than have to stand guard just to protect what is mine.
I had forgot that I took a few collage courses in the late 90s early 2000s but I had retired and was bored.
<S>
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 05, 2022, 01:10:33 PM
no I was just quoting the part about college degrees. I can do plumbing, electricity, install windows, doors, I could basically build a house
I wish you lived near Seattle. Up there, it's hard to get any time at all from handymen, and if you do find one available, the cost can be $100/hour.
I wonder if there will be a correction in what various types of work cost. Maybe we have seen the peak in ratio of salary for wet-behind-the-ears younglings, ineptly writing easy low-end code for the Silicon Valley hive, compared to salary for skilled trades. Maybe that ratio will be going down for a while.
There has for a while been a correction of salary for plumbers, electricians, welders, etc. vs. a bachelor's in English, history, sociology, etc.
There won't be a correction for unskilled labor, or for labor that takes only brief training, because of the large amounts of unskilled labor coming into the country.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 06, 2022, 01:07:01 PM
’ but cant sit or stand up for long to do that job. and yet i have to fight for ssi. it takes me a long time to be able to get out of bed.
I cant pick up a 100 dollar bill off the floor. and cant find anybody to tell me how to get that free stuff most of you blab about. ‘
semp
Do you have any advocate helping you, a social worker or someone from DES, possibly even the VA that has gotten to know your entire situation? If not, you need one to get SSID.
Veteran status puts you way ahead of non-veterans.
I can only infer and make assumptions from many of your posts I have read. But I have seen you write that you can barely walk, above about the $100 bill to you only have a limp. I’m not trying make judgment, however if DES case worker were to see/hear discrepancies like that, it is grounds for denial.
I’m sorry about your recent tragedy and loss, but with that under consideration I believe they’d be more interested in helping you than before.
I hope it works out soon for you.
:salute
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: guncrasher on June 07, 2022, 01:55:59 AM
I have a great social worker, she's in her mid 20's looks to be about 12 years old. I advised her to quit. because the job will suck the life out of her. she thinks she can save the world but it's only gonna make her not sure what to say, bitter, old, waste her life. she just smiles and says she likes her job. I really wish she would quit, because it's not good for her. she's sweet but eventually it will kill her. that is sad. grateful for the job she does but, it's not good for her.
me, I'll be alright, I will manage, it just takes time. and time is all i have.
semp
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 07, 2022, 06:56:33 AM
Why the inflation numbers are like other numbers the government feeds you ... you are just supposed to swallow them without question..
It's why CLI is called CL lies by many
https://youtu.be/BoWnBjvgenU
It all sounds new to this guy..he best watch it or YT might cancel him..even though he speaks the truth.
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: morfiend on June 08, 2022, 09:50:22 AM
I wish you lived near Seattle. Up there, it's hard to get any time at all from handymen, and if you do find one available, the cost can be $100/
The cost could be 1000bucks an hour and it wouldn’t matter how skilled the “handyman” is if he’s disabled. Just because semp knows how to do many things it doesn’t change the fact that he can’t physically do those things.
It kills me to know my neighbour can renovate his house but yet claims his back is too bad to actually go to work. It’s the few like him that ruin it for those in real need but as I said I’d rather have a system that can be scammed than no system at all. Same goes for minimum wage,if there werent labour laws we’d still be working 7 days 16 hours for a nickel an hour and if you got hurt or killed on the job too bad so sad.
<S>
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: MiloMorai on June 08, 2022, 09:22:13 PM
CEOs for the 350 largest US companies earned an average pay of $18.9 million in 2017, a sharp 17 percent increase from the previous year, according to a new study by the left leaning Economic Policy Institute.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 09, 2022, 06:49:43 PM
Many more days like todayvahead IMO...and Cl lie is out tomorrow to let us know record gas is not their fault...
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 10, 2022, 11:27:29 AM
Joking aside, Fed should really lay down a .75 to full point hike today (don't think they will). Now would be a good time. Hide it in the pain of the CPI report so market already throwing a fit.
They are on the verge of losing credibility on inflation at that point the hikes or threat of hikes loose their psychological leverage. Market starting to doubt they have control or sufficient backbone to tame inflation. Once market loses all faith in Fed, psychology takes on it's own frenzy and doesn't pay attention to the fed any more. Fed can't signal once the herd is in full panic.
But I expect a milquetoast 0.5. Enough to hurt the market but not enough to get any real traction on taming inflation. Things are starting to spiral. The center cannot hold.
You guys may get your hyper inflation sooner than I expected.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 10, 2022, 11:34:07 AM
A retired trader I used to message with told me a couple of things years ago.
First of of the day tends to be retail action. Second half of the day tends to be institutional\funds action. First part of the week tends to be retail weighted, Fri tends be when institutional investors tip their hand.
Those are weak correlations, not laws. But I always pay special attention to the last half of fri action. I feel like that gives me best visibility into what the smart-money is thinking.
Also he said markets seldom bottom on a fri.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 10, 2022, 01:01:34 PM
Then some think there is the PPT which kick in when directed to minimize the damage
PPT is for plunge protection team which has been in action for some time according to some...usually in the last hour of trading
I am for a 1.0 increase to show they mean business
Considering they have to get the rate up to if not above inflation..they better get a move on or they will never catch up
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 10, 2022, 02:31:12 PM
Considering they have to get the rate up to if not above inflation..they better get a move on or they will never catch up
But they don't.
It needs to get just high enough to:
1. Destroy the wealth effect of a hyper-inflated stock market. 2. Destroy the wealth effect of a hyper-inflated housing market. 3. Loosen you a tight labor market with a recession and job loss. 4. Create income insecurity with a recession and job losses to cool spending. 5. Loosen you a tight commodities market with a recession and economic slow down.
They won't have to raise rates nearly as high as the inflation rate to let these second order effects do the rest of the work for them, thus saving the national debt carrying costs from becoming unserviceable.
[Edit] And some of the inflation truly was temporary and stimulus money will continue to burn off on its own. Some supply chain issues will unscrew themselves.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 10, 2022, 03:45:24 PM
PPT is for plunge protection team which has been in action for some time according to some...usually in the last hour of trading
Whoa! I missed that final drop. PPT turned into GMTFOOH! (Get Me the Fq OUT of HERE!)
If you listen, you can hear the muffled screams of a crop of muppets getting harvested by the bloody scythe of Smart-Money. ;)
[Edit] And yet the VIX is still below 30. Which suggests to me we are not even in the possible neighborhood of a real bottom. When its 35-45 and Jim Crammer is hanging himself of live TV then let me know. Then it will be time to start dollar-cost-averaging in.
VIX at 27 tells me Smart-Money doesn't even think the show has started yet. The orchestra is merely in the pit warming up and tuning. The lights haven't dimmed, the curtain hasn't opened.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: decoy on June 10, 2022, 07:24:26 PM
Whoa! I missed that final drop. PPT turned into GMTFOOH! (Get Me the Fq OUT of HERE!)
Never heard of GMTFOOH before. Right up there with BOHICA and FUBAR. Speaking of, years ago in WBs there was a player whose call sign was FUBAR. Good player as I recall.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 10, 2022, 07:45:25 PM
It is amazing how much % or wealth the younger folks have dumped into bitcoin. There are going to be a lot of angry, bitter, young investors when this thing has run it's course. But the young have time; the most valuable of assets. They can learn from this and have decades of working years to recover.
[Edit] But for full disclosure, it bitcoin drops to ~1000-5000 I might buy some. For the same reason I buy a 1$ lotto ticket each week. 1$ is the change left over in my pocket. Upside is sufficient for 1$. But I wouldn't put 20% of my wealth into lotto tickets.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 13, 2022, 10:05:18 AM
If S&P closes below 3850 today (certainly on track for that), and bakes in a couple of days (Certainly no good news for market expected Wed) there might be no firm support between here and ~3200-3000. It's that Wiley Coyote moment when he realized he has run off the edge of the cliff and is dangling over open air.
And 3200 might not be a strong support either.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 13, 2022, 10:19:42 AM
As it was all so predictable one has to wonder why they let it get this bad
Even then if energy was addressed we wouldn't be going down the toilet as quickly but we all know what that is about.....
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 13, 2022, 10:45:42 AM
The lights are starting to dim.
The curtain will soon begin to open.
The show is almost ready to begin.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 13, 2022, 11:00:38 AM
If S&P closes below 3850 today (certainly on track for that), and bakes in a couple of days (Certainly no good news for market expected Wed) there might be no firm support between here and ~3200-3000. It's that Wiley Coyote moment when he realized he has run off the edge of the cliff and is dangling over open air.
And 3200 might not be a strong support either.
We were at an inflated s&p at 3200 when it crashed easily to 2584 in March 2020..
I don't see anything that shows it wouldn't crash to that again except the fed losing there nerve and reversing the actions they are taking now..
When that happens the next super bubble begins
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: morfiend on June 13, 2022, 11:11:35 AM
Can't see anything that can be twisted as good news that would stop another drop IMO..
Hope most of you have moved your $$$ into safer money markets/cd's for now
Eagler
We did that at the start of the planedemic! Took a big hit at first but then it mostly came back and made some modest gains but we’re not in the US market and moved most into Canuck banks.
2 of the banks have doubled in value and 2 others are near double so if I see a small correction I’m not very worried. We’ve been playing the long game low risk low reward but after 30 years of that our initial investment have grown quite nicely. Oh and it helps when your wife is a FA and long time bank employee.
<S>
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 13, 2022, 11:45:23 AM
We were at an inflated s&p at 3200 when it crashed easily to 2584 in March 2020..
To be clear, I'm not suggesting a bottom at 3200. It would merely be the next resistance line I would expect the Bulls to dig in and try and defend. It may bounce there a bit, but I do expect it to eventually fall and the rout continue. My base case is the S&P getting to 2500-1500 range.
Inflation is the game here currently.
A lot of people think the Fed cares about the stock market directly. I do not share that belief. I think they only see the stock market (and other asset classes) as second order tools to achieve their actual focus: full employment and price stability. I believe they truly are willing to inflate to ridiculous levels, or crash to rubble all asset classes as need to achieve the two metric they believe their legacy will be judged on. Volker cratered the economy into a deep recession and has been hailed as a hero for decades. Markets and assets are perfectly expendable as long as inflation is kept constrained and the job losses are not excessive. Currently, inflation is out of control and the labor market so tight that we could tolerate significant layoffs and still just return to near normal levels. That suggest to me there is no Fed "Put" in the works for the foreseeable future.
Another very important point I saw someone bring up (and I totally agree) is the effect of inflation on the USD as a reserve currency. It is a VITAL strategic interest to maintain USD as the worlds reserve currency. The gov is willing to accept any pain to protect that. If push came to shove, guys in dark suits with dark glasses will show in Powell's office to explain to him that inflation must be tamed even if it leads to undesirable job losses. It is a matter of National Security. Inflation is KRYPTONITE to a reserve currency. Even depression is preferable. That just strengthens the dollar. Actors need to feel confident they can deal in dollars and not lose value it the time it takes a contract to complete. If inflation is running out of control actors start feeling queasy about using it for international commerce. Then calls to replace the USD with a crypto backed by an averaging of multiple sovereign currencies really starts to get traction. That would be catastrophic loss of influence for the US. Maintaining the USD position as reserve currency trumps all other considerations.
There will be no Fed "Put" until inflation is tamed. They are certainly willing to crater the stock, housing, crypto markets if needed. They are probably willing to accepts quite a bit of job loss for now. Labor is tight enough they have room to maneuver there. At least until 5-6% unemployment.
IMHO. YMMV.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Max on June 13, 2022, 11:48:44 AM
One of my favorite channels. Check it every day for great guests. He has a great Sat morning market week recap with a very knowledgeable trade that is part of my weekly ritual.
Pot of coffee, big breakfast, Wealthion market update.
:aok
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 13, 2022, 05:33:48 PM
Looks like maybe 0.75 is on the table.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Max on June 13, 2022, 05:54:49 PM
That should take some of the wind out of the Charlotte housing market when mortgage rates catch the drift. It's been absolutely nuts for 5+ years. Paid $185K for a 1,450sq ft /.875 acres place in 2017. Turning away offers for $335K.
Conventional wisdom suggests values will remain largely the same in the coming months but buyers won't be stampeding new listings and open houses. Charlotte's just too hot of a market, and has been for some time now.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 13, 2022, 06:55:38 PM
Don't worry the housing market is going down as well
It's all over bloated with QE for the last 14 years with dropping interest rates at the same time
I am hoping they raise it a full point the next couple of raises
I think the faster the crash the faster they will reverse direction with lower rates and restart of qe and call it a day until it all bubbles up again...
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 13, 2022, 10:02:45 PM
Digital tulips continue to implode. Essentially a 1930's style bank run for the gen Z and millennial set. You want a panic? Tell people it's not currently convenient to allow them to access their money. :rolleyes: Especially if people are needing to liquidate those assets to cover margin calls.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 13, 2022, 10:16:38 PM
Feelin like some stock market porn?
I just re-watched a lesser known movie, Margin Call. Underrated IMHO. While not named, it is largely based on the internal events happening at Lehman Brothers during the GFC collapse.
I had re-watched The Big Short last week. Loved the movie and book. Both did and amazingly good job at explaining complex stuff in a way that was approachable by average people.
Honorable mentions worth considering: Boiler Room, Wolf of Wall Street, though not stock oriented, Glengarry Glen Ross is a great taste of the unsavoriness of business.
Too Big to Fail was interesting, but perhaps a bit too deferential to the Fed and big banks. YMMV.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 14, 2022, 12:19:06 AM
Boiler Room is another excellent finance movie.
[Edit: Oops. I see Cap mentioned it already.]
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on June 14, 2022, 12:20:15 AM
Your investments are based on the Chinese economy
Your enemy
Digital tulips is a very good, someone knows Dutch history except Shida
How do you people sleep at night?
People in Harlem and Detroit on welfare while your biggest companies employ your enemies
Shame on you
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: guncrasher on June 14, 2022, 12:49:43 AM
that pretty much sums up stock brokers. along with the wolf of wall street. what is it that he say, nobody warren buffet, jimmy buffet knows if the market is going up or down. you come up with another idea because that's how you come make money by commissions mf.
semp
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 14, 2022, 06:06:39 AM
That should take some of the wind out of the Charlotte housing market when mortgage rates catch the drift. It's been absolutely nuts for 5+ years. Paid $185K for a 1,450sq ft /.875 acres place in 2017. Turning away offers for $335K.
Conventional wisdom suggests values will remain largely the same in the coming months but buyers won't be stampeding new listings and open houses. Charlotte's just too hot of a market, and has been for some time now.
I believe a lot of the housing pressure is being driven by investor/flippers. That is only feasible when money was essentially free. There was intense pressure in the last year to squeeze out as many deals as possible while rates were still low. That is all about to implode.
The collapse of investor\flipper pressure combined with regular buyers fear and insecurity (people will start worrying when layoffs start) will have a huge impact on the housing market.
And this time it is much more wide spread than in 2008. in the GFC, Texas was much less effected than many markets. This time it's a nation wide phenomenon. Austin, DFW, are hugely over inflated.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 14, 2022, 02:58:12 PM
2009 had a cable contractor installing data service who was a flipper the year before...
It will be the same this time
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 14, 2022, 03:10:41 PM
Quote
Real estate investors bought a record 18.4 percent of the homes that were sold in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2021, up from 12.6 percent a year earlier, according to the realty company Redfin.
If they dont state it's going to be at least .75 the next two raises they are not serious about taming inflation imo
Or stay at 50 basis and accelerate QT. Same effect. They should do both.
If fact, Fed should drop some Shock-and-Awe on the market and raise 100 basis AND announce QT acceleration. They are definitely giving off the vibe of being way behind the power curve still and too timid in their approach. Like in the movies when they slap someone who is getting hysterical. ;)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 15, 2022, 09:33:09 AM
Or you have to shoot the dog as it has rabies...
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 15, 2022, 09:46:56 AM
Great writing great acting.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 15, 2022, 10:51:30 AM
I forgot how good that movie is and what a great cast it has.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 15, 2022, 11:03:47 AM
Also brings to mind an excellent quote that might once again be especially relevant to our nation's financial situation:
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." -- Upton Sinclair
When it's all said and done, will people even remember the politicians who were proponents of MMT? Will they remember that Keynsianism has dangers akin to financial meth? Probably not.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 15, 2022, 11:06:34 AM
I forgot how good that movie is and what a great cast it has.
:aok
I can see why it wasn't a big hit with the general public that thinks every movie should be based on a Marvel comic, but I agree it's one of those hidden gems. It might be too understated for a lot of people, but underneath that silence is a cauldron of tension and fear. There was artistic license taken I'm sure, but it is probably an amazingly close rendering of what it must have been like behind closed doors on Wall Street when things started to capsize. :confused:
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on June 15, 2022, 11:22:09 AM
A American using a fictional film to gain a world view.
Mention a book and there is hysterics.
Very odd
The only one going hysterical over books in this forum is you (demanding everyone else read books, demanding to know what books they read, refusing to believe they read, refusing to prove you do). :aok :old:
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 15, 2022, 12:00:53 PM
This scene nails it.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 15, 2022, 01:33:30 PM
.75 better than .5 not as strong as 1.00 IMO.
I guess they want to continue to chase their tails..instead of having the guts to act strongly and quickly deal with their self created mess.
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 15, 2022, 01:47:32 PM
As the market is now 500 points higher...actually more as it was negative...is confirmation to me he didn't raise it enough..
No guts..
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 15, 2022, 02:35:57 PM
As the market is now 500 points higher...actually more as it was negative...is confirmation to me he didn't raise it enough..
No guts..
Eagler
I believe that the Fed is intentionally working toward a 1/3 to 1/2 reduction in stock, bond, and real-estate values and an decrease in employment rate.
But they need their actions to stay within the range of what is considered typical. It is OK if the process takes a year or two. They can keep raising interest rates until it is accomplished.
That way, after the markets have crashed, they can say, "Well, we were doing what everyone knows was the usual and prudent action."
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 15, 2022, 02:51:42 PM
A American using a fictional film to gain a world view.
Mention a book and there is hysterics.
Very odd
Some good books for today:
The Mandibles, by Shriver (who lives in UK but is American :banana: ) That Hideous Strength, by C. S. Lewis This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Reinhart and Rogoff The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, by Lewis (a different Lewis) Boomerang: Travels in the New Third World, by Lewis Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, by Acemoglu and Robinson The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, by Gibbon Atlas Shrugged, by Rand
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 15, 2022, 03:06:38 PM
The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, by Lewis (a different Lewis)
Flash Boys by Lewis was also illuminating.
I also enjoyed Griftopia by Taibbi.
Trivia: my favorite Taibbi quote:
Quote
The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it’s everywhere. The world’s most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.
Gives you a hint of his writing style. :rofl
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 15, 2022, 07:39:10 PM
As the market is now 500 points higher...actually more as it was negative...is confirmation to me he didn't raise it enough..
That bump didn't appear to have much conviction to it. Dropped back down by almost by half.
I doubt that is durable. We'll see. I'll be more interested in a couple of days as the news is processed. I'll be much more interested in how Fri ends.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on June 16, 2022, 01:37:15 AM
The only one going hysterical over books in this forum is you (demanding everyone else read books, demanding to know what books they read, refusing to believe they read, refusing to prove you do). :aok :old:
You believe the American civil war was fought to free slaves.
1 nil to me
You actually believe it don’t you :rofl
You people using TV programs created by executives so they can make more money to invest in China.
TV programs are not reality they are a product like beans to make money out of people like you :rofl
Fantastic hero’s are going to save the world :rofl
Books are kryptonite to the illiterate :rofl
Why people respond to my gibberish is awesome :rofl
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 16, 2022, 06:10:14 AM
The slower they are with their action the longer the pain IMO.
I would rather have a very messy year and then a reversal instead of 5 years to some sort of "soft" landing
I think the longer it drags out the more smaller businesses will go broke..which is part of these cycles IMO
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 16, 2022, 08:43:42 AM
Figure with the change in November coming, by 2024 the fed will reverse course and start lowering rates and firing up QE for the next bubble..
That's when I hope to buy the dip
Hard to pin dates.
My thinking is based on gate conditions:
1. When Fed announces they are pausing rate hikes I plan to start DCA into bonds.
2. 6 months after that, or when S&P gets to around 3000, which ever comes first, start DCA into stocks. But not getting too aggressive until around 2500-2000. It could go as low as 1500, but I'll just DCA around the low part of that inflection. I don't have to hit the exact bottom. just not the top or only half way down. ;)
[Edit] That is not financial advice, BTW. That is just what I'm doing.
You believe the American civil war was fought to free slaves.
1 nil to me
You actually believe it don’t you :rofl
You people using TV programs created by executives so they can make more money to invest in China.
TV programs are not reality they are a product like beans to make money out of people like you :rofl
Fantastic hero’s are going to save the world :rofl
Books are kryptonite to the illiterate :rofl
Why people respond to my gibberish is awesome :rofl
No, you can't have a handout from me. I will offer you thoughts and prayers, though. Well, maybe thoughts. Well, maybe neither. You'll have to try harder. :old:
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: RotBaron on June 17, 2022, 07:28:49 AM
That’s just one of a few of mine that took nosedives.
Could be worse. It could have been Cathy Wood's ARKK. -61% YTD.
The entire market could be down 60% from the Nov high, but tech sector in particular could reach -80% as it is disproportionately inflation and interest rate sensitive. That would be on par with the tech bubble crash. Might take a long painful 12 more months to grind out.
During that time there will probably be several sucker rallies. I expect one at least to be an all out hail-mary that might look a whole lot like we reached the bottom. Then it implodes again. The system is designed to squeeze every last available buck out of every muppet until there are no greater fools left to be found. Then it will complete it's decline and bottom.
After this mess bottoms out, buying at that point will provide fantastic opportunities for upside over the following decade. But those who bought at last Nov peak won't break-even again until ~2031. In fact, that really goes for anything bought over the 5 years or so.
It took the NASDAQ 14 years to get back to even from where it was at right before the bubble crash.
Fourteen. Years.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 17, 2022, 08:29:58 AM
Maybe or they all lose their marbles and balls and immediately turn QE back on and start lowering interest rates to save the day..after patting themselves on the back for a job well done...
In that case I am expecting another 24 months like we have experienced since the March 2020 drop..
Do you actually think they learned anything and the future will be any different?
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 17, 2022, 09:02:42 AM
Do you actually think they learned anything and the future will be any different?
Nope. If Fed starts massive printing, all my previous points simply get pushed to some other time in the future.
Eventually the same thing has to happen. They might can push it off again, but the effect just continues to compound.
Eventually, the piper will be paid. One way, or another.
I don't bother getting mad about it, or moralizing, or wishing it was different. There is little point. I'll leave others to tilt at windmills. I'll just concentrate on trying to figure out how the system is functioning, how to exploit it, and how to make money off what is going to happen anyway beyond my control.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: morfiend on June 17, 2022, 11:01:42 AM
I don't bother getting mad about it, or moralizing, or wishing it was different. There is little point. I'll leave others to tilt at windmills. I'll just concentrate on trying to figure out how the system is functioning, how to exploit it, and how to make money off what is going to happen anyway beyond my control.
I couldn’t agree more,like the 06/08 bubble burst,I simply lowered my expectation and made some moves to mitigate a major loss. This was done again at the start of the plannedemic.
The only problem is if you carry debt,that’s gonna cost you and I’d hate to have to renew a mortgage in the next few months.
<S>
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on June 17, 2022, 11:37:17 AM
No, you can't have a handout from me. I will offer you thoughts and prayers, though. Well, maybe thoughts. Well, maybe neither. You'll have to try harder. :old:
Pray?
Why would I want a prayer from the likes of you?
I don’t want or need anything from a Liberal.
Obama is your hero
I win
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on June 17, 2022, 11:43:36 AM
Have you resorted to using a back-patting machine or weighted blanket yet? If not then no, I'm not going to buy you either. Go on Amazon. Buy one or the other (or both) from the Chinese. :old:
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 17, 2022, 12:27:01 PM
Maybe or they all lose their marbles and balls and immediately turn QE back on and start lowering interest rates to save the day..after patting themselves on the back for a job well done...
In that case I am expecting another 24 months like we have experienced since the March 2020 drop..
Do you actually think they learned anything and the future will be any different?
Eagler
I'm thinking the Fed will crash stocks, bonds, and real estate by 1/3 to 1/2. Then they will push interest rates back near zero. That gets the market back toward more normality, clears out a bunch of debt by it being defaulted on, lowers inflation, moves up the unemployment rate, reduces some wealth disparity based on stocks. Then they can move interest rates down so that the US can make debt payments still. And hope from there forward the US can grow its way out of debt.
This is all my guess. It all depends on what a handful of people in private decide to do.
They could still chicken out before that and put us back into large inflation.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 17, 2022, 12:37:26 PM
Have you resorted to using a back-patting machine or weighted blanket yet? If not then no, I'm not going to buy you either. Go on Amazon. Buy one or the other (or both) from the Chinese. :old:
You are a fatty
You smell of duck meat from a sweaty tramps feet
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on June 17, 2022, 03:51:56 PM
Please take your fantasies to another thread..this one has provided more intelligence than ignorance so far
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: -gg- on June 18, 2022, 09:49:36 AM
I'm hoping the real estate market crashes big and screws those investment firms that have been buying everything. I'll be ready to buy again when the market crashes.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 18, 2022, 10:21:59 AM
I'm hoping the real estate market crashes big and screws those investment firms that have been buying everything. I'll be ready to buy again when the market crashes.
I suspect you will get your wish.
You might have to wait another 12 months for the full effects to have sunk in. Housing tends to react a little slower than the stock market and many buyers already have loans locked in at a rate before the rates rose. But it's already rolling over.
New mortgage application are WAY down. Many listings are starting to lower asking prices. Many buyer are starting to feel financially insecure with possible failing economy and job losses on the horizon. Many are changing their mind and deciding to stay put for a while until we get past this upcoming recession. A ton of new construction will be flooding in that no longer is needed in the market. The investor buyers are realizing this well is dry and starting to rotate out. And the bloat was not as localized as the GFC housing bubble, so many more areas will be affected.
In 12 months, it will be a buyers market, not a sellers market. Good for some, bad for others. Good for young families who are completely locked out of entering the housing market currently. Bad for flippers who have not been paying attention. ;)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 18, 2022, 12:31:48 PM
Oooofff. The market is taking a weed whacker to the digital tulips.
The amount of money people are losing there is mind-blowing. And not even close to the bottom. Bitcoin, NFT, and SPACs are the pinnacle, the poster children of out of control irrational exuberance. They are this crash's no-job\no-income adjustable rate mortgage analog. They are this bubble's version of weapons of financial mass destruction.
You're watching history.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 18, 2022, 02:23:31 PM
More like living it as you watch your net worth shrink before your eyes and there isn't anything you can do about it
Agree - no where near the bottom
That is why my guess is they will blink, calling it a fix prematurely and after a very short stay at some higher rate, the lowering of rates will begin as no one has the patience of pre free money/lower market gains anymore and the same abuse will occur because of that impatience
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: morfiend on June 18, 2022, 02:48:14 PM
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 18, 2022, 11:30:08 PM
I met a friend of mine for lunch Fri at Buffalo Wild Wings. Hadn't been there in a couple of years. We used to make sure we arrived right at opening because it would fill up quick for lunch and it was always crowded. It was empty. I thought that was really weird, but I chalked it up to people working from home more. I dunno. It was weird enough to mention to my friend. WTF?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 19, 2022, 08:13:37 AM
Sunday morning news shows...if their lips are moving they're lying..all to cover this administrations failing economic policies...it's like watching a crime family all lying together.
Bird woman yellen is almost as scary as Lance Armstrong potato head...
https://youtu.be/20B002zCo7U
Someone has to put that to benny hill music :cheers:
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 19, 2022, 09:14:32 AM
your going to hear this phrase a lot in the coming months.
Sunday morning news shows...if their lips are moving they're lying..all to cover this administrations failing economic policies...it's like watching a crime family all lying together.
Bird woman yellen is almost as scary as Lance Armstrong potato head...
https://youtu.be/20B002zCo7U
Someone has to put that to benny hill music :cheers:
Eagler
:rofl
Nearly choked on what I was eating.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on June 21, 2022, 11:14:33 AM
Benny hill was my uncle
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: guncrasher on June 22, 2022, 12:22:58 AM
Predict a good down day today as it has been falsely propped up for two days now
Nothing goes down or up in a straight line. We were due for a temporary relief rally. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bulls give it maximum effort for the next couple of weeks to convince themselves that we've hit the bottom.
But mid next month, Q2 earnings come out. That might be the next shoe to drop. Earning will likely be painful. With the E in the the P\E ratio cratering, the ratios that were already insane and reckless in the boom time, will begin to look obviously unsustainable. Then P needs to crash to get the ratio to some realistic value that anyone will be willing to buy.
I expect another 0.75 at the FMOC meeting end of July.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: -gg- on June 23, 2022, 09:49:18 AM
And once again I'll tell you guys. Milo and spitbull. If you apologize to me I'll let you back into flame warriors. You don't even have to apologize publicly.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: MiloMorai on June 23, 2022, 10:23:52 AM
And once again I'll tell you guys. Milo and spitbull. If you apologize to me I'll let you back into flame warriors. You don't even have to apologize publicly.
And I will say it again, apologize for what. You should apologize to us.
Not that it matters. As not interested in going back to FW and the redneck hillbilly attitude.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on June 23, 2022, 10:26:21 AM
And once again I'll tell you guys. Milo and spitbull. If you apologize to me I'll let you back into flame warriors. You don't even have to apologize publicly.
Whats flame warriors ?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 23, 2022, 10:38:26 AM
And once again I'll tell you guys. Milo and spitbull. If you apologize to me I'll let you back into flame warriors. You don't even have to apologize publicly.
I think you are advertising your bbs in the wrong thread
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: MiloMorai on June 23, 2022, 10:53:45 AM
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 25, 2022, 12:34:56 PM
Bear market rallies tend to be "fast, furious, and prone to failure." - Hussman
I expect this current sucker rally to continue at least to next week. Maybe an impressive rise. But you never know. If I was still stuck with longs that made me nervous (I'm not ;)) I might use any temporary rally to unload at a better price than I am likely to find later.
End of quarter Window Dressing https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/windowdressing.asp (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/windowdressing.asp), temporary oversold conditions are pushing this until July.
Assuming no massive negative catalysts between now and end of Q2.
I would expect pain to recommence start of Q3. Things might get really sporty once Q2 earnings start coming in mid-July. Then 0.75-1.0 BSP rate raise again next meeting.
I see some pundits sure that the market\economy pain will cause the Fed to pivot by Sept. I absolutely reject that thesis. First, this is not the same Fed as previous years. This set of voting members are majority hawks and they are quite done with the pain and risk too much loose money for too long has caused. I think those hoping for a pivot to save this bloated market are engaging in magical wishful thinking.
When inflation is under control they might pause rate hikes, but that is not enough to prevent the market from trending back toward historical trend norms, which would be a lot closer to around S&P 2000 line.
Short of near societal collapse, don't expect a lowering of rates with this class of Fed voters. Setting a broken bone hurts, but you got to do it.
They're quoting Volcker for cripes sake. That's like a President quoting Lincoln. You know you are in for some pain then.
Quote
"Near the top of the market, investors are extraordinarily optimistic because they've seen mostly higher prices for a year or two. The sell-offs witnessed during that span were usually brief. Even when they were severe, the market bounced back quickly and always rose to loftier levels. At the top, optimism is king, speculation is running wild, stocks carry high price/earnings ratios, and liquidity has evaporated. A small rise in interest rates can easily be the catalyst for triggering a bear market at that point."
- Martin Zweig, Winning on Wall Street, 1986
Quote
"The greed itch begins when you see stocks move that you don't own. Then friends of yours have a stock that has doubled; or if you have one that has doubled, they have one that has tripled. This is what produces bull market tops. Obviously no one rationally would want to buy at the top, and yet enough people do to produce a top. It is really quite amazing how time horizons and money goals can change when there are stocks around that are going up 100 percent in six months. Finally it all turns into a marvelous carmagnole that is great fun if you leave the party early."
- Adam Smith, The Money Game, 1967
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 27, 2022, 10:09:29 AM
There is still a lot of carry over from people who had loans locked in at lower rates and real-estates has a built in lag. But it's starting to roll over. Price reductions are showing up. Time-on-market increasing. There is a metric crap ton of new inventory that builders are bringing on-line that they started at the peak of the bubble that is going to sit empty and on their books.
Mortgage rates pretty much doubled just on the first rate hike. Another same size or larger coming end of July. Another probably in Sept. Look at how large that segment is. When recession, lay-offs, crashed stock market, destroyed wealth effect, (debt security defaults?), and sky-rocketing mortgage rates all converge on that market segment...it's going to get sporty.
You're witnessing history.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 27, 2022, 11:31:15 AM
And MBS' are starting to go no-bid on occasion. Mortgages packaged up for sale as an instrument and the market saying, "mmmmm no thanks." Eventually you can keep lowering it until you find a speculator, but it's an ominous sign.
If this is the movie Titanic, the water is not yet up to our knees, but we all just felt a shudder go though ship.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on June 29, 2022, 11:09:41 PM
Well that anticipated rally kinda fell flat. There was plenty of volume, but it seemed that every time someone starting buying, someone else used it as an opportunity to unload some. So things sort churned and didn't build traction. Not a good sign. No bueno. ;)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on June 30, 2022, 06:35:59 AM
Decades of financial abuse and bloating with almost zero interest money will take much longer than the kramer types want to admit...America has no patience.
I hear the fear that they won't kill the inflation dragon as they will lose their nerve and start the next bubble cycle sooner then they should
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on June 30, 2022, 06:56:22 AM
I should have got everything on credit and then gone mental.
Getting certified in the UK you cannot be taken to court.
Biden and Clinton are your friends :rofl
You people :rofl
Always someone else to blame never your stupid greedy selves.
China has engineers the US has youths who cannot used a screwdriver
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on June 30, 2022, 12:27:16 PM
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: DmonSlyr on July 05, 2022, 06:26:36 AM
You look at a company like MU, who beat earnings by 16 points, made a billion more in revenue than last years Q2, and hit all time record for earnings. It beat last Q by 45 points and Its down 40% for the year with a 5 forward PE. Market is broken.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: RotBaron on July 05, 2022, 08:19:28 AM
As they saying goes $ doesn’t grow on trees.
So where is the $ coming from (out of) for the Ukraine?
Google has that as the top hit when you get to the last few words, yet no link I looked addresses that question. All of the links point to where it’s going, what it is (supposedly) being used for and how it compares to the other significant parts of Federal aid.
I’m not intending to debate the war, literally just want to know, are they “printing” $ or is it being taken from other pledges/projects etc.?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on July 05, 2022, 09:13:30 AM
Ukraine money is just being printed out of thin air as it was never budgeted for...
Billions of $$$$ ...like magic!
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Maverick on July 05, 2022, 10:07:40 AM
Ukraine money is just being printed out of thin air as it was never budgeted for...
Billions of $$$$ ...like magic!
Eagler
All money is printed out of thin air. Always.
I'd think a discussion of Ukraine would be interesting, but perhaps you could start a separate thread where we could discuss that.
I will tease this. I think every dollar we can beg, borrow, or steal to pump into to Ukraine is the best value we could hope for if it ends in more dead Russians. We are at war with Russia. It's just not publicly acknowledged yet. Like the WWII "Phony War". The next phase is going to be US youngsters getting shot at in NATO countries. For as long as we can (and this sounds cruel), I'd prefer to expend US dollars and let the Ukrainians fight for us in a proxy war while we gear up for the real fight (i.e. Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania). That's money well spent IMHO, it buys time while we shift to a war-time footing.
Ukraine isn't the end goal. It is the corridor they need to clear to access Poland.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: DmonSlyr on July 05, 2022, 12:33:23 PM
I'd think a discussion of Ukraine would be interesting, but perhaps you could start a separate thread where we could discuss that.
I will tease this. I think every dollar we can beg, borrow, or steal to pump into to Ukraine is the best value we could hope for if it ends in more dead Russians. We are at war with Russia. It's just not publicly acknowledged yet. Like the WWII "Phony War". The next phase is going to be US youngsters getting shot at in NATO countries. For as long as we can (and this sounds cruel), I'd prefer to expend US dollars and let the Ukrainians fight for us in a proxy war while we gear up for the real fight (i.e. Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania). That's money well spent IMHO, it buys time while we shift to a war-time footing.
Ukraine isn't the end goal. It is the corridor they need to clear to access Poland.
"We" are not at war with Russia. The NWO is at war with Russia, after the US sold them uranium. What a shocker. The NWO did it to themselves thinking they could use Ukraine for its bidding, and the Ukrainian people paid the price. Its unfortunate, but don't pretend like Putin wasnt warning them for atleast the last 7 years or so.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Brooke on July 05, 2022, 12:47:54 PM
The US government could have caused there to be no war in Ukraine. Instead, it took actions that made it more likely to have war.
Who benefits from that? Not the plebeians.
So what are the reasons? Ineptitude? Or on purpose for the benefit of groups other than the plebeians? Maybe both?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: morfiend on July 05, 2022, 12:53:13 PM
Ukraine isn't the end goal. It is the corridor they need to clear to access Poland.
My wife is pole/Uke/Russian depending on the time frame with a little chek thrown in for good measure and still have family over there that have been displaced.
She asked why Russia would want to go to Poland as there nothing but polocks there…. :devil
We were in contact with family there and they said both sides are lying and then asked if we had heard about the rapes and other atrocities that were happening. Unfortunately we haven’t been able to contact them these past few weeks as they’ve moved/exiled to another country and have to wait until they try to contact us which Imsuspect is a low priority ATM.
<S>
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 05, 2022, 01:39:29 PM
Moved to new thread :bolt:
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on July 05, 2022, 01:53:40 PM
2016 - 2019 seem like paradise compared to the last 18 months...
What's the difference?
Thought we weren't going into the latest distraction from the crumbling economy in this thread?
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 05, 2022, 02:01:32 PM
You look at a company like MU, who beat earnings by 16 points, made a billion more in revenue than last years Q2, and hit all time record for earnings. It beat last Q by 45 points and Its down 40% for the year with a 5 forward PE. Market is broken.
Well, even good companies have had their valuation inflated artificially by Fed money printing over the last 10 years. Tech in general tends to be interest rate sensitive. Also, yes, there is just going to be a general malaise in all stocks until this collapse runs it's course. Strong companies will survive and you can buy them again later at a cheaper price.
Also the market is forward looking. It doesn't matter what you done in the past if the forward guidance doesn't look good. Good company or not, they are probably going to be facing some intense headwinds over the next year.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 13, 2022, 10:51:44 AM
Mortgage rates nearly double just on the first 75 bps hike. It would be amusing to see what happens with a 100 bps hike. Real estate is a massive component of the economy.
A flood of new inventory started by builders during the peak is coming on line and no one wants it. Record number of buyers are canceling contract leaving builders with more unwanted inventory. Price cuts are starting as sellers are afraid they missed the boat. Flippers are going to get destroyed, but they deserve it. MBS might go no-bid or have to be heavily discounted.
Car repos are exploding to historic levels. Another canary in the coal mine.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on July 13, 2022, 11:57:48 AM
Higher rates just shakes out the bloat imo
There is a bunch of bloat to go if they are really going to correct their manipulation ...they won't though as that is depression time and they will reverse course and manipulate again b4 they go there
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Chris79 on July 13, 2022, 12:46:48 PM
Also, no Canadian mortgages are fixed. The bank has has the privilege of raising the interest rates on your mortgage. So at the end of the term, the mortgage will have been paid in full. Canadian mortgages also have an amortization period, which determines the total length of your mortgage, but the mortgage will most likely have a number of shorter mortgage terms within the amortization period. I imagine a watermelon storm is a brewing up north.